An American presidential historian predicts a Kamala Harris presidency as the outcome of the U.S. November elections.
In an interview with CTV News Channel on Tuesday, Allan Lichtman forecast that Kamala Harris will become the first female president, the second of African descent and the first of South Asian descent.
Lichtman is known for his accurate election predictions. He has correctly forecast the winner of nearly every presidential race since 1984, with the exception of one: Republican George W. Bush versus Democrat Al Gore in 2000.
Lichtman disputes that he predicted right after claiming that "Florida messed up that election," and Al Gore should have won.
His method, the "13 keys to the White House," examines the strength and performance of the incumbent party rather than polls or pundits.
In an article published in the National Council for the Social Studies, Lichtman outlines the 13 keys: party mandate, contest, incumbency, third part, short- and long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign or military success, incumbent charisma and challenger charisma.
"If six or more of the keys turn against the White House Party, they are predicted losers, fewer than six negative keys, they are predictive winners," Lichtman explained to CTV News Channel.
Using this model, Lichtman said in April 1982 he accurately predicted Ronald Reagan's re-election, during the worst recession since the Great Depression and when the president's approval ratings were down.
"In 2016, I defied the pundits, the pollsters and most other modellers by calling the winner as Donald Trump, which did not make me very popular in 90 per cent plus democratic Washington, D.C., where I teach at American University," Lichtman said.
Lichtman's prediction comes ahead of Tuesday's highly anticipated debate between U.S. Vice-President Harris and her opponent, former U.S. president Trump.
While many political analysts will closely watch the debate for clues about the election outcome, Lichtman cautions against putting too much stock in the event.
"Debates do not predict election results any more than any event in the campaign – the ads, the fundraising, the speeches, the dirty tricks," Lichtman said. "Hillary Clinton won all the debates and still lost in 2016. John Kerry won the debates against a very bad debater, George W. Bush, but still lost the election."
Lichtman said his prediction comes before the debate to prove that outcomes are not dependent on campaign events. "But certainly, watch the debates. They're interesting. They can give you insight into the candidates. They can be informative," he added.
Watch the full interview with Allan Lichtman at the top of the article.
Canadians will soon receive a temporary tax break on several items, along with a one-time $250 rebate, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Thursday.
A mother shares with CTVNews.ca her family's health scare as medical experts say cases of the disease and other respiratory illnesses have surged, filling up emergency departments nationwide.
U.S. president-elect Donald Trump on Thursday named Pam Bondi, the former attorney general of Florida, to be U.S. attorney general just hours after his other choice, Matt Gaetz, withdrew his name from consideration.
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Thursday that Moscow has tested a new intermediate-range missile in a strike on Ukraine, and he warned that it could use the weapon against countries that have allowed Kyiv to use their missiles to strike Russia.
Canadians won’t have to pay GST on a selection of items this holiday season, the prime minister vowed on Thursday.
A rare one-of-a-kind pure gold coin from the Royal Canadian Mint has sold for more than $1.5 million. The 99.99 per cent pure gold coin, named 'The Dance Screen (The Scream Too),' weighs a whopping 10 kilograms and surpassed the previous record for a coin offered at an auction in Canada.
Humans weren’t the only ones who struggled through the bomb cyclone that formed off the B.C. coast this week, bringing intense winds and choppy seas.
Taylor Swift is officially back in Toronto for round two. The popstar princess's motorcade was seen driving along the Gardiner Expressway on Thursday afternoon, making its way to the downtown core ahead of night four of ‘The Eras Tour’ at the Rogers Centre.
Approximately 85,000 new passports are being held back by Service Canada, which stopped mailing them out a week before the nationwide Canada Post strike.
An investigation into how the Canadian Coast Guard responded to a Nova Scotia vessel in distress two years ago raises questions about why one fisherman died after a towing operation went awry.
Calgary police are seeking information in relation to a Tuesday fire in Hillhurst they believe was deliberately set and notes left in the area demanding Bitcoin.
Municipal officials are considering an end to water fluoridation on the island of Montreal in a move spurred by a petition from a resident who claims he has the support of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Approximately 85,000 new passports are being held back by Service Canada, which stopped mailing them out a week before the nationwide Canada Post strike.
Nova Scotia’s top three political party leaders took part in CTV Atlantic’s roundtable discussion on Thursday, where they sparred over affordability, housing, health care, and campaign promises.
Humans weren’t the only ones who struggled through the bomb cyclone that formed off the B.C. coast this week, bringing intense winds and choppy seas.
An Alabama inmate convicted in the 1994 killing of a female hitchhiker cursed at the prison warden and made obscene gestures with his hands shortly before he was put to death Thursday evening in the nation's third execution using nitrogen gas.
Mexico's president acknowledged Thursday that Canada is concerned about reports of a Chinese company's plan to build an auto plant in Mexico, but she said it does not currently exist.
Brazil's federal police said Thursday they indicted former President Jair Bolsonaro and 36 other people on charges of attempting a coup to keep him in office after his electoral defeat in the 2022 elections.
A recent lawsuit alleges Linda McMahon, who U.S. President-elect Donald Trump tapped to lead the Department of Education, knowingly enabled the sexual exploitation of children by a World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE) employee as early as the 1980s — allegations she denies.
More than 60 years after President John F. Kennedy was assassinated, conspiracy theories still swirl and any new glimpse into the fateful day of Nov. 22, 1963, in Dallas continues to fascinate.
A woman told police that she was sexually assaulted in 2017 by Pete Hegseth after he took her phone, blocked the door to a California hotel room and refused to let her leave, according to a detailed investigative report made public late Wednesday.
Canada's consul general in New York doubled-down Thursday on his past claim that he exerted no influence on the decision of Global Affairs Canada to buy a $9 million condo in Manhattan.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canada will 'abide' by an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Canadians will soon receive a temporary tax break on several items, along with a one-time $250 rebate, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Thursday.
A mother shares with CTVNews.ca her family's health scare as medical experts say cases of the disease and other respiratory illnesses have surged, filling up emergency departments nationwide.
What kind of exercise is best during chilly weather? How can people safely and enjoyably participate in physical activity outdoors when it’s cold out?
A Dallas anesthesiologist was sentenced Wednesday to 190 years in prison for injecting a nerve-blocking agent and other drugs into bags of intravenous fluid at a surgical center where he worked, leading to the death of a coworker and causing cardiac emergencies for several patients.
The Canadian Space Agency (CSA) is inviting Canadians to choose the name of the first Canadian Lunar Rover.
Astronomers have captured the first close-up image of a star beyond our galaxy, taken during a dramatic moment near the end of the star’s life. In it, the 'behemoth' star appears to puff out gas and dust, a critical final step before exploding in a supernova.
A rare kind of fruit fly has been caught by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agriculture specialists at Detroit Metro Airport.
Pamela Hayden, the longtime voice actor behind Milhouse Van Houten — Bart Simpson's very uncool friend — is stepping away after 35 years of whining.
Everybody who lived in Edmonton in the 1980s knew it was famous for two things: the mall and the Oilers.
A musical gem was recently uncovered from the vaults of the Luther Vandross Estate — a soulful, never-before-heard rendition of The Beatles' song 'Michelle.'
FunGuyz, which calls itself the biggest magic mushroom dispensary in Canada, says it's shutting down all 30 of its Ontario locations.
A temporary pause on charging the federal sales tax on many items has retailers excited, even though they say preparing for the relief will mean a lot of extra work in a short period of time.
Irving Tissue said it needs to expand in Macon because the mill is currently selling all the bath tissue and paper towels it can make
The world's tallest woman and the world’s shortest woman have met for afternoon tea in London to celebrate Guinness World Records Day.
Sandra Kroek and her grandson Remington spent 200 hours painting a massive Star Wars mural together.
CTVNews.ca wants to hear from digital nomads who have taken up location-independent jobs and can work from anywhere with an internet connection.
Alex Ovechkin has a broken left fibula and is expected to be out four to six weeks, an injury that pauses the Washington Capitals superstar captain’s pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s NHL career goals record.
Sea Bears centre Chad Posthumus has died at age 33.
Shohei Ohtani won his third Most Valuable Player Award and first in the National League, and Aaron Judge earned his second American League honour on Thursday.
Northvolt AB has filed for bankruptcy protection in the United States, but said the move will not jeopardize the manufacturer's planned electric vehicle battery plant in Quebec — though hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars invested in the parent company could be lost.
Canadian drivers are regularly in a hurry to get to their destination and a majority are willing to take unnecessary risks on the road, according to the results of a new survey.
A man from B.C.’s Lower Mainland who was scammed while selling his Porsche Cayenne online is sharing his cautionary tale – while calling for increased protections from the government.
After driving near the water that winter day, Brian Lavery thought he saw a dog splashing in the waves – then realized it was way too cold for that.
Toronto radio and podcast host Jax Irwin has recently gone viral for videos of her cute -- and at times confusing -- phone conversations.
Two young women from New Brunswick have won one of the most prestigious and sought-after academic honours in the world.
Stretching 3,000 kilometres from the tip of New Zealand to its southernmost point, with just a bicycle for transport and a tent to call home, bikepacking event Tour Aotearoa is not for the faint of heart.
When he first moved to his urban neighbourhood, Barry Devonald was surprised to be welcomed by a whole flock of new neighbours.
When George Arcioni began renovating his kitchen last summer, he didn’t expect to find a stack of letters hidden in the wall behind his oven.
A Nova Scotia couple fulfilled their wildest dreams Thursday night when they got engaged at Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour in Toronto.
Some Calgary residents caught what appeared to be a meteor streaking across the sky early on Wednesday morning.
Four years ago, Phill Hebb started up 'Phil’s Unique Birdhouses' and since then, they’ve made their way all across Canada and into the United States.
The coach of a soccer team in the Vancouver Youth Soccer Association claims a complaint about racism directed at 13-year-old players on his team went unaddressed for more than a year.
Don't look now, but Christmas is less than five weeks away, and holiday festivities are ramping up across Metro Vancouver. Here are some events to check out this weekend.
A man who drove a car into B.C.'s Burrard Inlet in a livestreamed social media stunt has been sentenced to one year of probation and will not have a criminal record if he complies with court-ordered conditions.
A 39-year-old woman who was critically injured after she and her family were struck by the driver of a vehicle in Etobicoke last month has died in hospital, Toronto police say.
Taylor Swift is officially back in Toronto for round two. The popstar princess's motorcade was seen driving along the Gardiner Expressway on Thursday afternoon, making its way to the downtown core ahead of night four of ‘The Eras Tour’ at the Rogers Centre.
Two people have been arrested and another suspect remains at large in connection with a fatal shooting in Brampton earlier this month.
Calgary Fire Department is responding to an explosion at a six-plex in the city's southeast.
Calgary councillors are dipping into city reserves to fund several projects while attempting to hold the line on property tax increases next year. More than three dozen amendments to the proposed mid-cycle budget adjustments are being discussed as council determines possible spending and savings.
Calgary police are seeking information in relation to a Tuesday fire in Hillhurst they believe was deliberately set and notes left in the area demanding Bitcoin.
The student union at the University of Ottawa says it will consider pulling its participation from the U-Pass, which provides discounted transit fares for students, if the city goes forward with hiking student transit fees and violating the program’s contract.
A former Ottawa police officer returned to the witness stand on Monday and provided further details of the moments before the violent and deadly arrest of Abdirahman Abdi on the fourth day of a coroner's inquest into the circumstances of his death.
Two people have been arrested following a protest outside Stornoway, the official residence of Canada's leader of the Opposition.
The lobby of Concordia University’s Hall Building was flooded with pro-Palestinian protesters Thursday as others gathered and chanted outside the campus as part of Quebec-wide solidarity strikes.
There was a mixed reaction to the Quebec government's fall fiscal update on Thursday as the province announced billions of dollars in new spending.
The Shield of Athena is fundraising to expand services after a sharp increase in demand from abuse victims.
The Alberta government is making changes to auto insurance, including rate hikes and switching to a predominantly no-fault claims model.
Edmonton's top cop wouldn't detail what his plans are following his retirement in three months when asked Thursday at a news conference. But there are possibilities Dale McFee will be doing something else after he leaves the Edmonton Police Service on Feb. 21.
Two city councillors, one sitting and one former, will be running for mayor in 2025.
Nova Scotia’s top three political party leaders took part in CTV Atlantic’s roundtable discussion on Thursday, where they sparred over affordability, housing, health care, and campaign promises.
Canadians will soon receive a temporary tax break on several items, along with a one-time $250 rebate, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Thursday.
A high school on Prince Edward Island is removing pictures of its late students from a memorial wall – a decision that has upset one mother whose daughter attended the school.
Sio Silica is planning to try again with a controversial mining project in the same spot using the same method that the province rejected less than a year ago, but this time with more community engagement.
The City of Winnipeg is projecting an operating shortfall in 2024, and the plan to cover it off would completely drain the city's rainy day fund.
Manitoba RCMP have issued a Canada-wide arrest warrant for the semi-driver involved in a crash that killed an eight-year-old girl and her mother.
A Regina chiropractor accused of sexually assaulting seven different women took the stand Thursday as arguments began in his defense.
Evraz North America says an investigation is underway after a contractor was fatally injured while on the job in Regina on Nov. 19.
The Regina Pats have announced a blockbuster trade Thursday that sees captain Tanner Howe on his way to Calgary to play for the Hitmen as the team continues rebuilding for the future.
FunGuyz, which calls itself the biggest magic mushroom dispensary in Canada, says it's shutting down all 30 of its Ontario locations.
A crash between an LRT train and car shut down a busy Kitchener street for more than eight hours on Thursday.
A fight between rival outlaw motorcycle gangs has led to multiple arrests, more than a dozen charges and the seizure of 17 firearms.
After being sworn in Wednesday night alongside a mix of new and returning city councillors, Cynthia Block becomes the first female mayor of Saskatoon.
A Saskatchewan tuxedo business says struggles with inflation and operating costs have caused it close stores across the province.
Alberta-based non-profit the Mustard Seed is stepping up to run Saskatoon's Lighthouse.
After years of delays, the province has pulled the plug on an addiction treatment centre in North Bay. A news release from Canadore College on Thursday confirmed the centre won’t be moving forward.
Canadians will soon receive a temporary tax break on several items, along with a one-time $250 rebate, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Thursday.
The City of Elliot Lake said Thursday it has received a $3-million donation from Edward and Suzanne Rogers for the Centennial Arena restoration.
Police say that on Thursday, November 21 between the hours of 1:30 a.m., and 4:30 a.m. the suspect came and went from a residence on Conway Drive.
An Ontario law firm is seeking information about the movements and activities of a Catholic priest who was convicted of sexually abusing a 12-year-old boy before he died.
Posthumus played a stint with the London Lightning - hitting the court for 22 games in the 2015-2016 season, averaging 11 points, and 6.5 rebounds.
Radon is the number one cause of lung cancer in non-smokers in Canada, according to Grey Bruce Public Health Unit.
Staff at the Busby Centre, a nonprofit organization that supports individuals struggling and living on the streets of Barrie, received a surprise donation on Wednesday in the form of Taylor Swift tickets.
OPP detachments in Simcoe Muskoka kicked off their annual Festive R.I.D.E. campaign for the holiday season along with other detachments across the province.
An Ontario law firm is seeking information about the movements and activities of a Catholic priest who was convicted of sexually abusing a 12-year-old boy before he died.
They’ve been based out of the basement of Hotel Dieu Grace Healthcare for many years, rent free - however, that partnership is coming to an end.
Windsor police are asking for the public’s help identifying a suspect wanted in connection to an alleged serious assault that happened this past summer.
Vancouver Island’s major crime unit is investigating the case of a Victoria teenager whose death was initially ruled an accidental overdose, but has since been reclassified by coroners as a homicide.
One person is dead after a fire that destroyed a home in Nanaimo's south end Wednesday morning.
Another fall storm is forecast to bring high winds to B.C.’s South Coast on Friday, Environment Canada says.
Police are appealing for information on a targeted shooting that resulted in the hospitalization of a man in Kamloops.
British Columbia's independent police watchdog has cleared officers of wrongdoing in a crash where three people were killed south of Kamloops in July of last year.
A B.C. woman who stole more than $14,000 in volunteer-raised funds that were supposed to be spent on school supplies and programs – including hot meals for vulnerable kids – won't spend any time in jail.
A new citywide campaign is hoping to encourage residents to shop, eat and explore local this holiday season.
Agriculture is an industry mainly dominated by men, but around 80 middle school and high school students – all of whom are female – are hoping to change that.
B.C. RCMP say one person was killed in a head-on crash on the Trans-Canada Highway near Salmon Arm on Wednesday.
Sault-based charity Save Our Young Adults, or SOYA, will soon move to a new home -- for good reason.
The City of Elliot Lake said Thursday it has received a $3-million donation from Edward and Suzanne Rogers for the Centennial Arena restoration.
Students in Sault College’s business accounting program have a new learning pathway that will ultimately give them a head start to a career.
A Newfoundland energy company's embrace of data centres is raising doubts about eastern Canadian hopes of harnessing the region's howling winds to supply Germany with power from green hydrogen.
An international group led by a Canadian is in Rome this week to push the Catholic Church to adopt a zero-tolerance policy on abuse by clergy.
A company hoping to build a multi-billion-dollar wind-to-hydrogen project in western Newfoundland is eyeing other options as Canada's plans to supply Europe with green energy have not yet materialized.
The Shopping Trends team is independent of the journalists at CTV News. We may earn a commission when you use our links to shop. Read about us.
