KYIV, Ukraine — When Russia fires a ballistic missile at Ukraine, air-defence systems have only minutes — sometimes seconds — to detect and intercept the deadly threat. The lack of time has left Kyiv and other cities increasingly exposed to devastating attacks by the missiles that come down so fast and so steeply that Ukraine says only the U.S.-made Patriot defence system can stop them. But Ukraine says it has too few batteries and interceptors to protect itself. Unlike cruise missiles, which behave like pilotless planes, ballistic missiles are launched like rockets and then dive steeply toward their targets at several times the speed of sound. That sharply reduces the time available to find and destroy a warhead. When the warhead is hurled toward its target, “it’s very, very steep and it’s going at a ridiculous speed,” said Thomas Withington, an expert on electronic warfare at the Royal United Services Institute, who compared the physics to playing catch. If the ball is “going really fast, it’s harder to catch.” Russia’s ground-launched Iskander-M missile is the Kremlin’s main ballistic missile. Another example is the air-launched Kinzhal missile. Russia has also fired S-300 and S-400 air-defence missiles at ground targets. A model known as the Zircon is technically a hypersonic anti-ship cruise missile, but its high speed resembles that of a ballistic missile and creates a similar interception problem. Here’s a look at the challenge of shielding Ukraine from some of Russia’s deadliest projectiles. The Patriot system offers some protection The most capable Patriot system supplied to Ukraine is designed for high-speed missile defence. Instead of exploding near a target, the PAC-3 system uses a maneuverable interceptor designed to collide with an incoming warhead. The Patriot technology must track the missile, predict its path and launch within minutes, sometimes leaving seconds for the final engagement. Patriots are currently the only system in Ukrainian service able to intercept the Russian Iskander-M, S-400 and Zircon missiles, according to Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat. The United States and its allies operate other anti-ballistic systems, including THAAD and sea-based Aegis defences, but they have not been provided to Ukraine. Even Patriot protection is not guaranteed. When a Patriot battery is absent, out of position or short of missiles, most other Ukrainian defences cannot substitute for it. Ukraine has too few batteries to shield every city. Russia combines ballistic missiles with cruise missiles, drones and decoys, forcing defenders to track many threats and ration scarce interceptors. A shortage of interceptors is only a part of a global problem The interceptor shortage has become more acute as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has consumed large numbers of Patriot and THAAD interceptors. An analysis by The Associated Press estimated that the U.S. Patriot inventory had fallen by at least 65 per cent from its prewar level, while the Pentagon said it retained a deep arsenal. Production cannot immediately close the gap. Lockheed Martin delivered more than 600 PAC-3 MSE interceptors in 2025 and is working toward annual capacity of 2,000 by the end of 2030. NATO says Europe’s first Patriot missile production facility is expected to open in September in Germany. Political signals from Washington have also shifted. At a NATO summit in Turkiye in July, U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States would give Ukraine a licence to produce Patriots. About three weeks later, he said he had not made a final decision. Even with a licence, officials and experts told AP that starting production in Ukraine would take years. Ukraine aims at the archer instead of the arrow Ukraine is also trying to destroy Russian missile launchers and infrastructure before missiles can be fired — shooting the archer instead of the arrow. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asked Trump to help secure Elon Musk’s permission for Ukrainian forces to use Starlink communications for targeting inside Russia, where Musk has restricted the service, according to someone familiar with the matter. Zelenskyy also told lawmakers on Capitol Hill that he wanted Starlink to help with targeting inside Russia, according to a person in the room. Both spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive private discussions. Such access could help Ukrainian drones hunt launchers and related infrastructure, reducing the number of missiles Patriot batteries must face. Kyiv is also developing Freya, a proposed Ukrainian-led, lower-cost anti-ballistic system intended to reduce dependence on Patriots. Ukraine and nine European countries formed a coalition in July to pursue a shared missile-defence capability, with Zelenskyy saying they could jointly develop a mass-produced system within 12 months. Freya remains under development, and it is unclear when it could become operational. Following a Russian ballistic attack on Kyiv earlier this month, Zelenskyy said Ukraine received only one-third as many air-defence missiles in the first half of 2026 as in the same period last year. He said Ukraine’s partners that are unwilling to increase interceptor deliveries immediately should instead impose new sanctions, noting that a significant share of Russia’s ballistic missile production has been untouched by sanctions. ___ Associated Press Writer Danica Kirka in London contributed to this report. Illia Novikov, The Associated Press
