Democrats and Republicans have pitched the voters their respective visions and directions for the future of the nation. The political conventions are officially over, but both sides are hopeful the euphoria and enthusiasm still lingers.
It is now officially a sprint to the White House as opposing campaigns vie for electoral supremacy. After hosting their respective marquee extravaganzas, showcasing their best and brightest, each side has settled on the overarching strategy they think will secure victory.
Republicans, led by MAGA Godfather Donald Trump, seek to contract the electoral landscape in hopes of their leader becoming only the second president in U.S. history to win back the White House after suffering defeat as an incumbent.
Vice-President Kamala Harris, however, aims to finally shatter the historical glass ceiling facing a woman candidate with a massive expansion of the democratic base. A battle royale featuring addition vs. subtraction.
Eager to regain the narrative, the Trump campaign announced the endorsement from Robert Kennedy Jr. in the immediate aftermath of the DNC confab. At first glance, the support of one of the most recognizable names in American politics certainly refutes the idea of contraction.
However, further examination of Kennedy’s cratering poll numbers underscores the politically prudent decision for the third party candidate to quickly strike a deal to endorse and exit the race before his numbers fell even further.
Republican presidential nominee former U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at a campaign rally at the Desert Diamond Arena, Aug. 23, 2024, in Glendale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
A Pew Research poll conducted in August shows Kennedy’s support dropped by half from 15% to just 7%, the direct result of Vice-President Harris's move to the top of the Democratic ticket. Clearly not a move to expand so much as one reeking of desperation. In fact, mostly known for his stance as an anti-vaxxer, Kennedy doesn’t grow the MAGA base so much as he reinforces a candidacy driven by grievance and isolation.
Talk of mass deportations; attacks on a popular Republican governor; caustic comments urging Israel to "get the job done" in Gaza; and, until recently, staunch opposition to women’s reproductive rights, all have certainly excited an already exuberant GOP base.
Nevertheless, this sky-high support comes at the expense of growth and outreach to invaluable constituencies in must-needed battleground states. The Trump campaign strategy of contraction seeks to depress voter enthusiasm among moderate and independent voters. All the while making room for a one-on-one confrontation pitting MAGA against K-Hive voters in a race for turnout.
However, the Harris campaign is not obliging as it continues to court expansion. Just recently, more than 200 former aides to three former GOP presidential nominees—President George W. Bush, the late-Senator John McCain, and Senator Mitt Romney—released a letter endorsing Kamala Harris for president.
The climactic denouement that began with coveted primetime speaking slots at the DNC convention in Chicago featuring a number of Republicans including two former senior aides that served in the Trump White House.
Former Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois speaks during the Democratic National Convention Aug. 22, 2024, in Chicago (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
Undoubtedly both strategies are showing remarkable resilience as national polls show the race well within the margin of error. However, go inside the numbers and the Harris-Walz campaign has seen marked improvement over President Biden’s anemic numbers.
In fact, in the all-important battleground states, the Harris-Walz ticket has eliminated Trump's lead in many of the must-win states and is rapidly closing the gap in North Carolina. Democrats have not seen success in the Tar-Heel state since Barack Obama won it in 2008. Still, despite the Hollywood star power, historic fundraising, and tremendous enthusiasm by young voters and voters of color, Trump’s MAGA base remains a resilient and elastic lifeline for his candidacy amid a surging Harris political movement.
Cheney's gone; Bush is gone; no Pence; no Romney. Nine years later, though age has somewhat diminished him and the incessant legal fights have taken their toll, Donald Trump remains, to this day, a political force of nature.
No state operations to speak of; trailing in the vaunted money race; and carrying a running mate woefully out of his depth. Still, the twice-impeached convicted felon emits fire and brimstone, which serves as a clarion call to his supporters.
Supporters attend a campaign event for Republican presidential nominee former U.S. President Donald Trump at Alro Steel, Aug. 29, 2024, in Potterville, Mich. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
Even after hollowing out the Republican Party, a hostile takeover that he enacted and reshaped in his own image, a dysfunctional, chaotic, and ineffectual apparatus that has woefully underperformed post-2016 still finds a way to remain competitive, relevant, and potent.
Losing with a majority of key voters that will decide the outcome of this race, the Trump strategy of subtraction is still somehow paying dividends.
Even among what is quickly becoming a political juggernaut, the Harris movement, with shades of Obama excitement and personality, is growing and shaping hearts and minds. Moving into every constitutional crevice, every social corner, shaking the ambivalent from their political hibernation.
Yet, it remains unclear if the addition, the inclusivity, the multiplication will be enough to offset Trump’s unique plan of contraction. In politics, the most votes win, but only if they are not susceptible to division -- which Trump has shown time after time an uncanny ability to master.
Eric Ham is a bestselling author and former congressional staffer in the U.S. Congress. He served as a contributor to TheHill.com and The Washington Diplomat. He resides in Washington, DC.
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