An expert stands firm on his U.S. election win prediction. Here's what he says happened after

In the midst of a heated U.S. presidential election, one expert has remained steadfast in his prediction despite polls and partisan rhetoric stating otherwise.

Allan Lichtman, a seasoned presidential historian, has weathered a storm of criticism and threats, but stands firm on a Kamala Harris victory — which he previously predicted last month.

• America Votes: Latest U.S. election news and analysis from a Canadian perspective
• The information you need to know, sent directly to you: Download the CTV News App

"My prediction does not change with respect to the ephemeral events of the campaign," Lichtman said in an interview with CTV News Channel Tuesday. "It is based on a fundamental understanding of how American presidential elections really work, as votes up or down on the strength and performance of the White House party."

Lichtman's unwavering stance is rooted in his track record of accurate election predictions dating back to 1984, with the exception of one: Republican George W. Bush versus Democrat Al Gore in 2000.

Lichtman argues he predicted right, claiming that "Florida messed up that election," and Al Gore should have won.

His method, the "13 keys to the White House," examines the strength and performance of the incumbent party rather than polls or pundits. 

In an article published in the National Council for the Social Studies, Lichtman outlines the 13 keys: party mandate, contest, incumbency, third party, short- and long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign or military success, incumbent charisma and challenger charisma.

'Toxic' political landscape

Lichtman said he faced a barrage of "hate that is vulgar, scurrilous, violent" after his forecast of a Harris win.

"I have never, ever had the kind of hate heaped upon me that I've seen this time," Lichtman expressed.

Lichtman said he has had to notify the police amid threats to the security of his family.

"This is the toxic politics that Donald Trump has introduced in our society," Lichtman said. "It never happened before the advent of Trump."

Despite the personal toll, Lichtman remains undeterred and warns that Trump has "tapped into the darkest impulses in American history, racism, misogyny, antisemitism, xenophobia. He has made it crystal clear that he will have no guardrails. He will govern as an authoritarian."

"Our democracy is on a precipice. Our society is in the most perilous moment since 1860. The media should have its hair on fire, and it doesn't. It's obsessed with these incessant polls," Lichtman warned.

Swing states

As the election draws near, Lichtman said the polls' error margin is greater than any gap between the candidates.

"People don't respond to polls, then they lie. They may change their mind, and they don't know who will ultimately vote," Lichtman said.

• Follow the CTV News channel on WhatsApp

In this context, Lichtman believes that the media has been "derelict" in its coverage, focusing too much on the ever-changing polls rather than the dire consequences of a Trump victory.

Lichtman said the polls underestimated Republicans in 2016 and based on what has occurred between 2022 and 2024, the polls may be underestimating Democratic voters.

Lichtman references the inaccuracy of the polls during the 2012 elections when they turned against then-U.S. president Barack Obama after his "disastrous" first debate with then-Republican party nominee Mitt Romney. "I stuck to my prediction of an Obama win," Lichtman added.

Tens of millions of people have already voted, Lichtman said. "If you look at the swing state vote, it's very favourable to Harris, particularly given that it's overwhelmingly among women."

Watch the full interview with Allan Lichtman at the top of the article.