Victor Wembanyama, a seven-foot-three, 19-year-old Frenchman, is one of the most anticipated basketball prospects ever, and tonight, the NBA will finally know which team will get the right to draft him.
The 14 teams that failed to make the playoffs this year, one being the Toronto Raptors, all technically have a chance at landing the number one overall pick, but unfortunately for Raps fans, the odds aren’t looking good.
Still, there’s no way to predict how the ping pong balls will fall, especially since the league changed the draft lottery system back in 2017 to flatten the odds for the league’s worst teams.
The last time the Raptors participated in the lottery was two years ago, when they unexpectedly jumped from the seventh to the fourth spot, where they selected the next season’s Rookie of the Year, Scottie Barns.
The Raptors will be hoping for some more draft magic tonight. Here’s everything you need to know about the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery:
HOW THE NBA DRAFT LOTTERY WORKS
As has always been the case, the worst teams from the previous season have the best odds of getting a high draft position, however dating back to the 2019 draft, the three worst teams now all have the same odds of getting the number one pick.
The Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs each have a 14 per cent chance of getting the number one pick, and a 52 per cent chance of picking in the top four.
The odds then gradually get worse for each of the remaining 11 teams based on their respective regular season records.
The Raptors, who finished the season 41-41, were the 13th-worst team in the league this year, and the best among all lottery teams except for the New Orleans Pelicans, who finished the season with one more win.
The lottery gives each team a chance at getting a top four pick, and once those four teams have been selected, the remaining 10 teams are simply assigned a pick based on their regular season record – the team with the worst remaining record receiving the highest remaining pick.
That means that if the Raptors don’t jump into the top four, they are locked into the 13th spot, unless the Pelicans manage to jump into the top four themselves, leaving the Raptors with the best remaining record, and thus the 14th and final lottery pick.
VICTOR WEMBANYAMA
Victor Wembanyama is possibly the most sought after NBA draft prospect ever. Not since 2003, when teenage phenom LeBron James was set to enter the league, has an NBA draft garnered this much attention and hype – and for good reason.
Wembanyama is a seven-feet, three-inch-tall 19-year-old from France who has the ball handling and shooting skills typical of prospects a foot shorter than him.
The league has always been full of seven-footers, but very few have ever been as skilled as Wembanyama already is.
Most are lumbering big men without the ability to shoot from the perimeter or dribble without having the ball stripped from them, whereas Wembanyama routinely pulls up from three-point range, essentially an un-guardable shot when you consider his height, and when teams attempt to put taller defenders on him, he has the ability to dribble around them and get to the rim, where his length allows him to finish easily.
But what excites scouts just as much is his ability to impact the game defensively. His height, massive wingspan, and timing make him perhaps the best shot-blocking prospect ever, and his foot-speed allows him to keep up with opposing perimeter players.
And what sets Wembanyama apart is not just his play on the court, but also his preparation and desire to succeed as a generational talent. He has personal trainers who track his sleep patterns, insisting he gets at least 10 hours per night.
His trainers are also aware that tall, mobile prospects like Wembanyama often have their careers cut short due to injuries, so they’ve spent years working on specific stretches and exercises to strengthen the parts of his body that will be under the most stress – mainly his toes.
Wembanyama seems determined to live up to the lofty expectations that have been placed on him, and if he can, he’s expected to be a player who produces effortless offense like Kevin Durant, but can anchor a defense like Kevin Garnett – if he was almost half a foot taller.
RAPTORS’ ODDS AT NUMBER ONE
The Raptors have the second-worst odds of all lottery teams at landing the number one overall pick, at one per cent. If somehow the Raptors win the lottery, they’d be the team with the worst odds to ever do so.
But a one per cent chance, or one in 100, may be more likely than you think.
It’s significantly more likely than someone winning any of Ontario’s major lottery prizes.
The odds of winning the Lotto 649 classic jackpot are one in 13,983,816. The odds of winning the OLG’s Daily Grand jackpot are slightly better than that, at one in 13,348,188, and the odds of winning the Lotto Max jackpot are one in 33,294,800, according to the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation.
Although no NBA team has ever won the lottery with one per cent odds, three teams have won it with less than a two per cent chance.
In 1993, the Orlando Magic had just a 1.52 per cent chance of getting the number one pick, but won the lottery, even after winning the right to draft Shaquille O’Neal with the first overall pick the previous year.
In 2008, the Chicago Bulls had just a 1.7 per cent chance at the number one pick, but won the lottery and selected home town hero and future MVP Derrick Rose.
And most recently, in 2014, the Cleveland Cavaliers got the number one pick, selecting Canadian all star Andrew Wiggins, despite having just a 1.7 per cent chance of getting it. The Cavs also got lucky in 2011, winning the number one pick and the right to draft Kyrie Irving with less than a 3 per cent chance.
The Raptors also have a chance at the other three top-four picks, but the odds don’t get much better.
They’ll have a 1.11 per cent chance to land the number two pick, a 1.25 per cent chance to land the number three pick, and a 1.42 per cent chance to land the number four pick. Together, Toronto has a 4.78 per cent chance to move into the top four.
Although it was a shock when the Raptors jumped from seventh place to fourth place in the 2021 draft, they had a significantly better chance at moving into the top four, at 29.36 per cent.
When it comes to teams moving up from the 13th spot, the Raptors will be hoping to emulate the 1999 Charlotte Hornets, who jumped an astonishing 10 spots to the number three pick, despite having just a 0.7 per cent chance of doing so.
LUCKY NUMBER 13
All in all, the Raptors have a 92.88 per cent chance of staying in the 13th spot, with just a 2.33 per cent chance of falling to 14th.
The last three 13th overall picks haven’t exactly turned out to be stars, but the careers of Jalen Duren, Canadian Chris Duarte and Kira Lewis Jr. are just getting started.
And although most 13th picks turn out to be role players, some of the best players in the game today – and in league history – were selected there.
Star guards Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell, Zach Lavine and Tyler Herro were all selected 13th overall.
As were Karl Malone and Kobe Bryant, the third and fourth leading regular season scorers in NBA history, respectively.
The last time the Raptors had the 13th pick, they selected Ed Davis out of the University of North Carolina. In three seasons with Toronto, he averaged 7.7 points and 6.8 rebounds per game.
Like in 2021, the Raptors will know early on in the lottery whether they’re picking 13th or 14th, or if they’ve snuck into the top four, as the picks will be announced in descending order.
The NBA Draft Lottery from Chicago is set for tonight at 8 p.m. Watch it live on TSN.
