More than 6 out of 10 Ontarians disagree with early election call: Nanos survey

CTV News' official pollster revealed the Ontario Progressive Conservatives maintain a strong lead in popular support, while the gap between the Liberals and New

More than six out of 10 Ontarians disagree with Doug Ford’s decision to call an early Ontario election, according to a new survey released by CTV News' official pollster Nanos Research on Saturday.

The survey of 904 Ontario adults, which was commissioned by CTV News, found that 52 per cent of respondents said they disagree with the election call while another 11 per cent said they somewhat disagree. About 17 per cent of respondents said they agreed with the election call while 16 per cent said they somewhat agreed. About four per cent of respondents were unsure.

Ford called the snap election amid looming tariff threats coming from the White House, citing the need for a “strong mandate” over the next four years to protect the province.

Ontarians will head to the polls on Feb. 27, which is more than a year-and-a-half before the initial fixed election date in June 2026.

The survey showed that opposition to the early election call was the strongest in Toronto where 69.3 per cent of respondents either disagreed or somewhat disagreed.

Just shy of 60 per cent (59.3 per cent) of residents across the Greater Toronto Area also disagreed or somewhat disagreed with the move.

Ontarians living in the northeastern part of the province expressed the highest level of support for the snap election, with 36.2 per cent agreeing with Ford’s call.

Nanos reveals men were more favourable toward the early election, with nearly 37 per cent of male respondents supporting the snap election versus the 28.5 per cent of women agreeing with the early vote.

Ontarians who are at least 55 years old expressed the lowest amount of support for the February election, with 67.8 per cent of respondents in that age group expressing disapproval. On the other hand, Ontarians between the ages of 18 and 34 indicated the highest level of support among all age groups at 37.3 per cent.

“When we asked Canadians, or ask Ontarians that is, this whole idea of Doug Ford saying that he needed a stronger mandate and called the early election, what’s interesting is about 63 per cent of Ontarians either disagreed or somewhat disagreed with Doug Ford’s assertion,” chief data scientist Nik Nanos tells CP24.

“Interestingly, 33 per cent agreed with him to one extent or another, but the kicker is this: think of it this way, the Progressive Conservatives are at 45 per cent support. Only 33 per cent of Ontarians actually agree with Doug Ford that the election was necessary.”

Gap slightly narrows between Liberals and NDP

On Saturday, CTV News' official pollster revealed the Ontario Progressive Conservatives maintain a strong lead in popular support at 45.1 per cent, while the gap between the Ontario Liberals and New Democrats has shortened incrementally.

“Support for the Ford PCs remained stable in the nightly tracking while there was some narrowing of the gap between the Liberals and the New Democrats,” Nanos of Nanos Research said of Saturday’s results. “Although two data points does not make a trend, a potential dynamic between the two main opposition parties should be monitored.”

According to the latest survey, the Liberals have 28.5 per cent support, a slight drop of 1.6 percentage points in nightly tracking, while the NDP are at 18.4 per cent, up 2.7 percentage points.

“With the NDP back at around 18 percentage points, one of the key takeaways at least is both the Progressive Conservatives and the Liberals are doing better than in the last provincial election,” Nanos tells CP24. “But, in the overnight tracking that we’re doing, a little bit of an uptick you can see for the New Demorats. So, we’ll have to see whether this is a new trend.”

In Toronto, more voters express support for the PCs, at just shy of 40 per cent (39.9 per cent), while 30.9 per cent back the Liberals. The NDP are at 23.4 per cent in the city.

Across the GTA, the survey suggests Ford’s PCs maintain their strong lead at 48.9 per cent support, compared to the 33.6 per cent support for Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals. Support for Marit Stiles' NDPs gained 1.5 percentage points compared to Friday’s numbers, going to 13.6 per cent.

Support for Crombie gains, though Ford remains top choice

Though Ford remains the top choice for premier among respondents at 38.7 per cent, support for Crombie slightly warmed. Saturday’s numbers reveal 26.8 per cent favour Crombie, up from 25.5 per cent from Friday.

Nanos reveals support slightly fell for Ontario NDP Leader Marit Stiles, dropping from 16.4 per cent to 15.8 per cent, while Ontario Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner is at 5.3 per cent.

Ford remained the popular choice among male voters (47.1 per cent), as well as northeastern Ontarians (47.3 per cent) and voters aged 35 to 54 years (43.3 per cent). Meanwhile, Crombie had the most support among women (30.3 per cent), voters in the GTA (32.5 per cent) and Ontarians at least 55 years old (32.4 per cent).

The random telephone and online survey included responses from 908 Ontarian adults interviewed from Feb. 5 to 7, and is considered accurate to within 3.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.