Here’s the top election issue for Ontario voters, according to a Nanos survey

A vote sign is displayed outside a polling station during advanced voting in the Ontario provincial election in Carleton Place, Ont., on Tuesday, May 24, 2022. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press)

Ontario Progressive Conservative Leader Doug Ford called an early election over the threat of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs. However, according to a new Nanos survey commissioned by CTV News, dealing with the American president is not the most pressing issue for many voters.

The survey finds 28.1 per cent of Ontarians say health care is the important issue that will influence how they will cast their ballot in this provincial election.

Another 21.5 per cent say a provincial party’s plan for the economy will be a factor in their decision on who to vote for. Meanwhile, dealing with President Trump ranks third, with 14.2 per cent of Ontarians saying that their vote will hinge on that issue.

Speaking to CP24 on Sunday morning, Dr. Fahad Razak, internist at St. Michael’s Hospital, says there is a “real crisis” with the province’s health-care system as more than two million Ontarians are without a family doctor.

“If you don’t have a family doctor, basic screening doesn’t get done in a timely way, you don’t get your vaccinations, you don’t get that cancer detection that should happen when you turn age 50, and then little things that could be managed -- let’s say, an infection -- that could have been managed in the family doctor’s office, things spiral out of control,” Razak said.

The Feb. 27 vote is more than a year ahead of the fixed June 2026 election. Despite having a majority government, Ford has repeatedly said he wanted a strong mandate to deal with the impact of Trump’s tariffs, which he suggested would result in the loss of hundreds of thousands of Ontario jobs.

The 25-per-cent tariff on almost all Canadian goods was scheduled to take effect on Feb. 4, but an eleventh-hour meeting between Trump and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau postponed them for a month.

According to the survey, housing and taxes round out the top five election issues for Ontario voters. The random telephone and online survey intervewed 904 Ontarian adults, and is considered to be accurate within 3.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The Liberals, the NDP and the Green Party have released their plans for health care, all mainly focusing on addressing the lack of family doctors in the province. Meanwhile, the PC government introduced a plan to connect every Ontarian with primary care two days before the election formally kicked off.

The issue recently became front and centre after hundreds lined up in a rural Ontario town braving the cold and snowy conditions with the hope of getting into the roster of a new family doctor.

On the first day of the election campaign, the Ontario Medical Association (OMA) released an open letter to all party leaders to prioritize the health of Ontarians.

“Our healthcare system is in crisis,” the OMA wrote, noting that 2.5 million people in Ontario do not have a family doctor, and that number is expected to climb to over 4 million in a year.

“Let’s ensure that whether you live in northern and rural Ontario, or in an urban centre, everyone in this province has access to physician care

The latest Nanos polling shows the Progressive Conservatives have a comfortable lead over the Ontario Liberals, with Ford as the preferred choice for premier among many voters.

NDPs only party to gain support in last two days

While support for the Tories dwindled nominally, the party still clutches onto a dominant lead across political parties with 44.1 per cent support from survey respondents, maintaining a 16-percentage-point lead over the Liberals. However, one party gained roughly four percentage points over the last two days, according to CTV News' official pollster.

“Notably, the (Marit) Stiles New Democrats are the only provincial party to have gained support over the past two nights. While they still lag behind the other two parties, NDP support has risen from 15.7 per cent to 19.9 per cent in recent days,” Nanos said in Sunday’s nightly tracking survey.

The survey comes on the heels of Stiles' pledge to provide a monthly tax-free rebate of up to $122 to lower- and middle-income families to help offset the costs of their grocery bills. The party said the amount would be based on how much the price of grocery staples increased over the last several years coupled with the recipients' annual income and household size.

“It’ll be interesting to see whether the New Democrats start to challenge the Liberals,” Nanos said in an interview with CP24 on Sunday morning.

The PCs lost some support in Toronto compared to Saturday’s numbers, going from 39.9 per cent to 34.6 per cent overnight. The Liberals and NDPs gained some backing from Torontonians at 32.6 per cent and 28.9 per cent, respectively, while the Ontario Greens receiving 3.2 per cent support.

Across the GTA, the survey reveals Ford’s PCs maintain a dominant lead at 50.3 per cent support, compared to the 30.7 per cent for the Liberals.

Crombie loses two points overnight

The slight uptick Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie gained over the last two days dropped, decreasing by two percentage points from Saturday at 24.8 per cent on Sunday.

Ford continues to be the preferred choice for premier, maintaining support at 38.2 per cent.

“He’s been very proactive on the Canada-U.S. front, he is the incumbent, he controlled the timing of the election, so I don’t think he would have called the election if he didn’t think he had a good chance to win,” Nanos told CP24 on Sunday morning, when asked why Ford has maintained his dominant lead.

Meanwhile, Stiles has 15.6 per cent support and Ontario Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner holds five per cent.

The survey also reveals about 9.6 per cent of respondents are unsure of who they’d want as their next premier, with 5.6 per cent indicating they don’t want any of the above candidates to take office.

Ford maintains the top choice among male voters (45.6 per cent), and gained backing from women (31.2 per cent) and Ontarians 55 years and older at 40.5 per cent. Crombie, who had been the top choice for female voters for the last two days, holds 28.2 per cent support from the demographic.

The random phone and online survey included responses from 913 Ontarian adults interviewed from Feb. 6 to Feb. 8, and is considered to be accurate within 3.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.