Canada to have smallest Olympic medal haul since 2012, according to forecast

Mayor Anne Hidalgo told France Inter radio that she would "dive in next week" and the water would be "depolluted, that's for sure." (Kyodo News/Getty Images via CNN Newsource)

Fewer Canadians are expected to reach the Paris podium than in the previous two Olympic Summer Games, a global data analytics company predicts.

Canada is expected to take home 21 medals, according to the Nielsen’s Gracenote Final Virtual Medal Table, which publishes medal haul predictions for the Olympics in addition to statistical analysis for sports leagues around the globe. Among the total haul, Gracenote forecasts Canadians will take home seven gold, nine silver and five bronze medals —three fewer than Tokyo 2020’s collection of seven gold, seven silver and ten bronze.

If the prediction is correct, it will be the smallest medal haul for Canada at the Summer Olympics since London 2012, when Canada brought home a total of 18 medals. Gracenote’s projections have historically been generally accurate. Most recently, it correctly named the top three medal-winning countries in Tokyo 2020 in the right order, and in Beijing 2022, predicted Norway would break the record for the most medals won at a single Winter Olympics. This will be Gracenote’s seventh Olympic forecast.

Simon Gleave, who heads Gracenote’s sports analysis, tells CTV News his forecast is largely based on results data from key global and continental competitions since the last Olympics.

“Athletics and swimming look like the key sports for Canada this time around, potentially delivering more than half of the medals,” he says. He adds there are a few events where a podium finish may be just out of reach for Canada based on current competition rankings, such as fencing, diving and track cycling. “We've got five Canadian performances in track cycling, which are between fourth and eighth [place]. So, those are performances which you would regard as being a medal opportunity, but they're falling outside.”

The United States is the favourite to top the medal tally, with a projection of 112 medals—including 39 gold—similar to the total claimed by Team USA at the last Summer Olympics. If this expectation is met, it will be the eighth consecutive time the United States has won the most overall medals at the Summer Games.

Meanwhile, France is expected to have its best Olympic Games in 124 years. The host nation is expected to triple its number of gold medals from the Tokyo Olympics and double its total medal haul overall, finishing with 60 medals.

“Once a country gets to host the Games, they obviously want to do as well as possible and so there is increased investment into sports in order to produce a better medal total than they would normally get,” Gleave says. He explains, however, that his data indicates home advantage doesn't tend to push other countries away from medal opportunities, but rather improves the medal an athlete might win, such as gold instead of silver.

Though Canada could bring less hardware home this time around, Canada’s Summer Games squad is strong, with reigning world champions and many medal contenders among the 337-athlete team.

It’s a group Canadians should be excited to watch, says Adam van Koeverden, a four-time Olympic medalist in sprint kayaking who will not be competing in the upcoming Games. Van Koeverden, who is now the Liberal MP for Milton, Ont., will be at the Paris Olympics between Aug. 4 and 12 on behalf of the federal government.

“There are 337 legends in the making with Team Canada. I am just so excited to watch every single second of the action,” he told guest host Tim Powers on The Vassy Kapelos Show Monday. “The diversity of our team, in terms of what they do and who they are during the year, is just so interesting to me.”

Seventeen-year-old Canadian swimming sensation Summer McIntosh, who holds the world record in the 400-metre individual medley, will be competing in her second Olympic Games. Other Canadian athletes to watch include Maggie Mac Neil, reigning Olympic champion in 100-metre butterfly; sprinter Andre De Grasse, Canada’s most decorated male summer Olympian; and Sanoa Dempfle-Olin, who is set to become Canada’s first-ever Olympian in surfing.

The Paris Games are set to kick off on Friday, with the opening ceremonies—poised to be the largest in Olympics history—beginning at 1:30 p.m. EDT. The Olympics will run until Aug. 11.