Thousands of kilometres from home, Justin Trudeau learns of dissension in his caucus

In the last hours of his first visit to Laos, the prime minister watched two fishermen cast bamboo nets into the muddy waters of the Mekong River. They were trying to catch tiny fish, each the length of a man's index finger, to later use as bait for something much more substantial.

The image of Justin Trudeau in rolled sleeves, lifting up a net with his youngest son Hadrien at his side, makes for suitable a metaphor for Canada's trade strategy in the region: Many small investments designed to reel in bigger opportunities for future generations.

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After his 27-hour journey to Vientiane, Laos, Trudeau spent just 36 hours in the capital city. He was there to attend the summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN); his third year in a row.

”It’s something no other Canadian prime minister has ever done,” Trudeau boasted during his remarks at the summit’s big banquet.“The faces around the table may change from year to year, but I truly feel at home, here.”

Since 2015, the year the Liberals swept into power with a majority, Canada has nearly doubled its trade with the 10 ASEAN nations to $38.8 billion. Combined, the bloc of countries is Canada’s fourth-largest trading partner.

Hadrien Trudeau gestures dad, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, as they walk up stairs with Export Promotion, International Trade and Economic Development Minister Mary Ng and Chief Executive Officer of the Mekong River Commission Secretariat Anoulak Kittikhoun following a visit with fisherman along the Mekong river in Vientiane, Laos, Oct. 11, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld

Sealing the deal

The federal government is currently negotiating a free trade agreement with Indonesia, which should be wrapped up by the end of the year, and another deal with the rest of the ASEAN nations on track to be signed a few months later.

Economists say it is an opportune time for expansion.

“It has a rapidly growing population, young demographic populations, so it’s poised to continue growing for the next generation or two,” said Kai Ostwald, the HSBC chair in Asian research at the University of British Columbia. “All of those things make it really valuable for Canada.”

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Increasing trade with ASEAN members is vital to Canada’s Indo-Pacific strategy, which seeks to reduce the country’s reliance on Chinese markets.

“We need to de-risk, so this is about building new trading partnerships; new relationships,” said Vina Nadjubulla, the vice-president of research strategy at the Asian Pacific Foundation of Canada. “We are an energy and food superpower, and (southeast Asia) needs those resources.”

Nadjubulla says rapidly industrializing ASEAN countries are fertile ground for Canada to advance new areas of trade like aerospace, defence and climate technology.

Hook, line, almost sinker

To lure them in, Trudeau held seven meetings with global leaders, spoke at the main gala dinner and participated in a roundtable discussion in front of ASEAN entrepreneurs.

He brought his bucket of bait to Vientiane, announcing a $128-million package of targeted investments. The funding is guided by Liberal-government priorities of fighting climate change, supporting the rights of women and children, and increasing stability in the Indo-Pacific.

A 65 per cent majority of the investment will go toward sustainable development and environmental protection measures. The rest of the money will be split between initiatives to fight transnational crime such as human and drug trafficking and cyber scams. There is also money for ASEAN programs that help women get fair wages, and that combat child labour.

But catching bigger fish also requires a bigger net. To facilitate more trade interaction, Canada is upgrading its diplomatic offices in Cambodia and Laos to full embassies. That means Canadian ambassadors will be posted in all 10 ASEAN nations. Team Canada trade missions are also planned for Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Cambodia over the next 12 months.

Progress, Trudeau hopes, will open the ASEAN market to more Canadian goods and create more jobs at home and abroad.

“This is not about a government footprint. This is about creating those opportunities for farmers, for startups, for businesses from coast to coast to coast who import from this region or export to it,” the prime minister said in a Friday news conference at the end of the summit.

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Shark in the water

Complicating matters were other countries at the ASEAN summit, carrying bigger buckets of bait. The gala dinner was attended by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi walked by Trudeau on the banquet room floor and Chinese Premier Li Qiang sat two seats away from Trudeau as the leaders watched a Lao dance performance.

China is ASEAN’s biggest trading partner. More than $1.25 trillion of goods passed between China and the bloc each year — that’s 45 times the size of Canada’s trade. China is a formidable competitor; a shark swimming in ASEAN waters.

Trudeau told reporters that in certain areas, Canada has to cooperate with China “as a significant global player,” but it also needs to compete with the super power for market access in areas like critical minerals and clean technology.

His new strategy involves finding strength in numbers.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau enters the room to participate in an armchair discussion at the ASEAN Business and Investment Summit, in Vientiane, Laos, Oct. 11, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld

New alignment

On the margins of the summit, Trudeau spent nearly an hour in a trilateral meeting at a cafe with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of Australia and New Zealand’s Christopher Luxon.

China has imposed protectionist measures on all three countries in trade disputes. Trade Minister Mary Ng said Canada shared with its allies how it handled the retaliatory tariffs China slapped on canola exports.

Last year, state-sponsored hackers from China targeted the governments of Canada, Australia and New Zealand in a cyber espionage campaign.

The leaders say learning from their shared experiences can lead to solutions in pursuit of common goals.

“As three of the Five Eyes partners, we share support for democratic values, support for human rights and opposition to violence and conflict,” said Australia’s Albanese, who also signalled more diplomatic cooperation in the future.

In the past year since the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel by Hamas, Trudeau, Albanese and Luxon have issued two joint statements calling for the return of hostages and a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza. They also advocated for a two-state solution in the region.

A recent State of Southeast Asia survey from the Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore found that the top geopolitical concern in the region was the Israel-Hamas war. Four of the 10 ASEAN members have majority-Muslim populations, including Indonesia, a country with which Canada hopes to sign to a free trade agreement later this year.

“The conflict in the Middle East has underscored the sense that rules-based means one thing for one set of countries and another thing for another set of countries,” said UBC's Ostwald.

The joint action by Canada, Australia and New Zealand distanced the middle powers from the U.S. and Israel, and may have shielded the countries from some criticism at the summit. While the issue did come up, it did not derail talks.

In concluding his speech to ASEAN leaders, Trudeau said he’s “determined to expand on our shared commitments and priorities, and to ultimately deliver real results and prosperity for our peoples.”

Trudeau has been able to stay afloat in geopolitics, but he’s at risk of drowning politically at home.

Turbulence in the air

Since the return of the fall sitting, the House of Commons has been mired in a stalemate. The New Democrats have ended their supply and confidence agreement with the Liberals nine months early. The Conservatives, in their pursuit of a “carbon tax election,” tabled two failed non-confidence motions within the first week of returning to the House.

Meanwhile, the Bloc Québécois is refusing to prop up the government unless it gets its way on supply-management and seniors' pension legislation by the end of October.

Then came the insider threat that surfaced Friday, as Trudeau returned home from Laos.

After 13 hours of flying, the prime minister’s plane stopped in Hawaii to refuel. The turbulence hit as soon as the government plane landed. Upon landing, the phones of staffers accompanying Trudeau buzzed with texts and emails.

On Friday, CTV News confirmed a story first reported by the Toronto Star that a group of backbench MPs, primarily from Atlantic Canada and southwestern Ontario, are in discussions to formally release an ask for the prime minister to consider the future of the Liberal party in making a decision about whether to stay at the helm of it.

The story broke while the prime minister was in the air.

While Trudeau’s RCMP protective detail whisked him away so he could go for a run during the refuelling break, his staff huddled in a small room in the VIP hangar in Honolulu to discuss their next move. After about 20 minutes, it was decided that Trade Minister Mary Ng would provide on-the-record comments to the 11 journalists travelling with the prime minister.

His communications staff did not respond to inquiries regarding when the PM learned of the revolt. The details were first published by the Star at approximately 6 p.m. At that time, the Airbus A-330 was over the Pacific Ocean on its overnight flight from Laos.

Trudeau does have internet access, although there is no Wi-Fi access in other areas of the plane.

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Ng told reporters she learned of the caucus dissension after the plane landed in Hawaii and turned on her phone.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau listens to Minister of Export Promotion, International Trade and Economic Development Mary Ng as they participate in an armchair discussion at the ASEAN business and investment summit, Oct. 11, 2024 in Vientiane, Laos. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld

Ng said she was “disappointed” in her colleagues that their dissension did not remain in caucus. She said she still had confidence in Trudeau and lamented the move as a distraction that had taken the shine off the passage of the government's pharmacare bill and a successful summit.

”Canadians are expecting us to do the work that you have seen the prime minister and myself do over the course of the last couple of days in ASEAN. Businesses are counting on us to open up these markets,” Ng said to journalists in a short scrum lasting approximately three minutes.

The free trade agreement with ASEAN is expected to be signed at the end of 2025. If Trudeau is pressured to step down, or if his government falls and loses the next election, Trudeau will not, as prime minister, be there to see the fruits of his labour.

Before his encounter with the fishermen in Laos, Trudeau would have seen the remnants of a flooded river bank that covered a nearby amusement park with a thick layer of dried, cracked mud. The region is in the middle of monsoon season.

There may be plenty of fish, but if the river is swelling and the current races, you can't expect to catch them.