Many federal seats too close to call and 'up for grabs' in latest Nanos projections

If a federal election were held now, Nanos Research's latest seat projections show Liberals would be in tough fights in ridings they won in 2021 -- including those in metropolitan areas in B.C. and Ontario.

Nanos Research conducts weekly national ballot tracking as well as monthly seat projections, to show how popular support for a party could translate into seats in the House of Commons. Circumstances could change by the time of the next federal election, which will take place on or before Oct. 20, 2025, however, and they could change significantly during an election campaign.

On the latest episode of Trend Line, Nik Nanos, chair of Nanos Research and CTV News' official pollster, picked out some highlights from regions across Canada in which there are interesting battles, to give you a snapshot of where things stand today.

In the following maps provided by Nanos Research, federal ridings in black represent those where projections for a winning party aren't possible because the margin of victory is within two per cent – which is too close to call. Areas in grey represent ridings where the margins are between two per cent and seven per cent.

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BRITISH COLUMBIA

Nanos Research's current seat projections in B.C.'s Lower Mainland (on left), election results in 2021 (on right).

The Liberals currently hold 15 out of 42 ridings in B.C. The Conservatives and NDP both have 13, while the Greens hold one seat in the province.

• Current party standings in the House of Commons

While we see "massive swaths" of red in the Lower Mainland on the 2021 election results map on the right above, "there's no red on the map right now," said Nanos, referring to the current projections map on the left. All of the current Liberal ridings in B.C.'s Lower Mainland – which covers the southwest corner of the province and makes up 60 per cent of the population -- are therefore in play if an election were held today.

The NDP, meanwhile, appears as if they'd be able to hold on to their B.C. ridings.

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"The key takeaway here in British Columbia, the Lower Mainland B.C., Vancouver, is that the Liberals are on their heels and they're in a fight in some really tight races in in British Columbia," said Nanos on the latest episode of CTV News Trend Line.

ALBERTA

Nanos Research's current seat projections in Edmonton (on left), election results in 2021 (on right).

The Conservatives hold 29 out of 34 seats in Alberta, while the Liberals and NDP have two each. One seat is vacant.

While Alberta remains strong for the federal Conservatives in Nanos' projections and appears to be a "lock" for them if an election were held today, things get interesting once you zoom in on Edmonton.

In the 2021 federal election, the NDP picked up two ridings (Edmonton—Strathcona and Edmonton Griesbach) while the Liberals captured Edmonton Centre. The NDP looks to be able to hold on to Edmonton Strathcona, but Edmonton Griesbach is a battle. In 2021, the NDP won that riding over the second-place Conservatives by 1,500 votes.

The Liberals are also being challenged in Edmonton Centre, where the margin between the Liberals and Conservatives was just 615 votes in 2021.

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The Conservatives, meanwhile, are in for a fight in Edmonton Mill Woods, where in the last election, 1,893 votes was the difference between them and the second-place Liberals.

MANITOBA

While the rest of the Prairies hold no real surprises in the Nanos seat projections, remaining steady for the Conservatives, there may be a Conservative seat at play in Manitoba.

Nanos Research's current seat projections in Winnipeg (on left), election results in 2021 (on right).

In Winnipeg, the Conservatives won Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley by just 460 votes over the Liberals in 2021. It's a riding that has flipped back and forth between the two parties in federal elections going back decades.

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ONTARIO

In the last federal election, the Liberals captured 76 of Ontario's 121 seats, to the Conservatives' 36 and five for the NDP.

Nanos Research's current seat projections in the GTA (on left), election results in 2021 (on right).

Nanos said "for folks that are on the red team, you're probably going to clutch your chest when you see this map," which shows ridings in the Greater Toronto Area that were a sea of red are now too close to call -- within a two-per cent margin, or a toss-up between two and seven per cent.

"Basically, almost right across the board, everything is in play," said Nanos.

"The interesting thing is that in downtown Toronto, it's in play between the New Democrats and the Liberals. And when we get into the suburbs, the greater 905, it's a fight between the Liberals and the Conservatives."

In the Niagara region, the Conservatives are experiencing a "little bit of a setback" and the Liberals would have a chance to pick up seats in that region.

"So right now big battleground Toronto and the 905 GTA is up for grabs. Both the New Democrats and the Conservatives are probably trying to prime themselves to pick up ridings at the expense of the Liberals."

QUEBEC

Quebec is the "one positive piece of news for the federal Liberals, there's not as much at risk" for them in the province," said Nanos.

The Liberals currently hold 34 of the province's 78 seats while the Bloc has 32. The Conservatives have nine seats while the NDP has one.

Nanos Research's current seat projections in Quebec (on left), election results in 2021 (on right).

"You can see some … Bloc ridings that have gone from clear Bloc to something that's up for grabs. But I don't think there's going to be as many changes," said Nanos.

There might be some good news for the NDP, meanwhile, in Quebec. "You can see that little spot of orange just north of Montreal, where the NDP could pick up."

That riding is Laurentides—Labelle, which changed hands from the Bloc to the NDP in 2011, then to the Liberals in 2015 before going back to the Bloc in 2019.

"Quebec is very interesting because it's got those vote splits between the Bloc, the New Democrats, the Conservatives, and also the Liberals. If you're [NDP Leader] Jagmeet Singh and we're in a minority parliament, every riding counts. So Quebec will be one to watch."

ATLANTIC CANADA

Atlantic Canada, meanwhile, could see some significant changes due to projections showing a tilt towards the Conservatives.

Nanos Research's current seat projections in New Brunswick (on left), election results in 2021 (on right).

That includes the New Brunswick riding of Fredericton, which went from Green to Liberal after Jenica Atwin crossed the floor in 2021. The Liberals won that riding over the Conservatives by just 502 votes in that election.

Nanos Research's current seat projections in PEI (on left), election results in 2021 (on right).

P.E.I., which was a sweep for the Liberals in 2021, now sees two out of the province's four seats in play. Those seats are Malpeque, which the Liberals won over the Conservatives by more than 2,000 votes in the last election, and Egmont, which the Liberals won by nearly 3,000 votes.

Nanos Research's current seat projections in Nova Scotia (on left), election results in 2021 (on right).

"Nova Scotia is another province that's going to be really interesting because when we look at Nova Scotia, there are a number of Liberal ridings that are actually have (extra word/phrasing) swung over" to the Conservatives and one to the NDP. Those ridings include Sydney-Victoria in Cape Breton, which is now projected Conservative, and the riding of Halifax, which is projected NDP.

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"So Nova Scotia is going to be going to be pretty tough for the Liberals," Nanos said.

Nanos Research's current seat projections in NFLD (on left), election results in 2021 (on right).

And Newfoundland and Labrador, which was predominantly a "red rock" for the Liberals, is now largely in play with ridings that are too close to call and challenges coming from the Conservatives.

All you see now is a "little red speck on the far tip of the island" in the projections map, that riding being St. John's South-Mount Pearl.

Nanos said "the key takeaway here in Atlantic Canada, is that Atlantic Canada is usually a 'gimme' most of the time for the Liberals. When Atlantic Canada starts tilting towards the Conservatives, it's bad news for the Liberals. That's usually indicative that the Conservatives are going to win the government."

Watch the full episode of Trend Line in our video player at the top of this article, or on YouTube. You can also listen in our audio player below, or wherever you get your podcasts. Trend Line will be back this fall after a summer hiatus.