'Pretty limited' options for Liberal MPs calling for leadership change

As calls mount within the federal Liberal Party for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step down as leader, one political analyst says there’s little his detractors can do to force his hand.

In a Sunday interview with CTV News Channel, Lori Turnbull of Dalhousie University and the Institute on Governance said the decision remains Trudeau’s at this time, as the party previously removed the option to initiate a leadership change through a majority vote.

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“There isn't the mechanism in the Liberal Party that there is in the Conservative Party,” explained Turnbull.

“They availed themselves of the Reform Act and in not using that mechanism. (The Conservatives) ousted Erin O'Toole a few years ago and then had the leadership process that brought Pierre Poilievre in. But the Liberals didn't take advantage of that mechanism where the caucus can, with a 50-per-cent-plus-one vote, push the leader out, and then replace with an interim leader. And so, their options for actually pushing him out of the door are pretty limited.”

According to Turnbull, the resignation requests from within Trudeau's caucus, be they through the media or in back rooms, appears to be the adoption of a "death by a thousand cuts" approach ahead of an impending federal election.

“As they get into election-readiness mode, as the party has to move toward making sure all the candidates are nominated, this last push to see whether there's any budging for those who want him to go — we're seeing that happen now.”

Turnbull added that the current lack of an heir-apparent for party leader removes some of the pressure on Trudeau, but that could change once leadership challengers emerge who caucus members could potentially rally around.

“Now that you can hear it more and more in terms of rumours of people putting together a leadership bid. People are networking. People are putting some money together, that sort of thing. That might be the type of thing that puts a greater amount of pressure on him because, without there being somewhere else to go, it's hard for the party," she said.

“And again, in the absence of this formal mechanism, it's hard to push one leader out when you're not sure who the next leader is going to be. It's hard to make that transfer.”

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Turnbull says it appears Trudeau is reflecting on his future over the holidays, but she expects that, no matter what the prime minister decides, an election will likely be called sooner than later.

“I think his options are basically, does he want to go into the next election with the party as leader of the party, or not? And if he does, he's going to have to get to (an) election quickly given the fact that opposition parties are saying they're done with this," she said.

"If he decides he wants to give the reins to somebody else, it will probably (be) by way of proroguing Parliament, so that the Liberals could have this process without being at risk of losing government in the House of Commons. And then, once that happens, you know that an election would be shortly after that, I would think.”