Canada says it expects to spend 2% of GDP on defence by 2032, but no specific details provided

Canada says it will reach its NATO commitment to spend two per cent of its GDP on defence by 2032, but specific cost details on how Canada will get there have yet to be provided. 

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made the announcement on the final day of the NATO summit in Washington. For over a year, Canada has faced increasing pressure and criticism from alliance members to boost defence spending.

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Until Thursday’s announcement, Canada was the only alliance member without a deadline to reach the two per cent target. In April, the federal government released its long-awaited defence policy that pledged Canada would see military spending rise to 1.76 per cent of GDP by 2030.

At the announcement, Trudeau faced several questions on the credibility of the commitment given the lack of specifics on how Canada will reach the two per cent target and how much it will cost to do so. When pressed by reporters for further details on the plan, Trudeau would not provide them.

“We have had to steadily and massively invest in increasing our capabilities in Canada over the past number of years,” Trudeau said. “It’s not just something that Canadians expect or our allies expect. It's something that the world requires.”

The government’s defence policy update in April also included a new overall investment of $8.1 billion over five years and $73 billion over 20 years.

When asked why the two per cent commitment was not included in that update three months ago, Trudeau said the policy was not aimed to be political.

“We laid out a defence policy update that wasn't focused on answering media questions or focused on political advantage. It was about doing what is right and what is needed in a responsible way,” Trudeau said.

Speaking to reporters on Thursday, Trudeau also questioned “the two per cent as the be-all and end-all of evaluating contributions to NATO” and argued his government has focused on how it can “best contribute to the world and how to get there in a responsible way.”

“So yes, there may be ways where we could shift some accounting or make a little tweak here or give every Coast Guard member a handgun and say, ‘OK, we've done our job.’ Would that make Canada safe? Would that make Canadians better off?”

According to a report from the Parliamentary Budget Officer in 2022, the federal government would need to spend an additional $75.3 billion over the next five years to reach NATO’s two per cent benchmark despite a significant increase in military spending between 2014 and 2021. 

In 2014, Canada was spending below one per cent of GDP on defence.

Response from the U.S., opposition

In the days leading up to the NATO summit, Canada was facing mounting pressure from prominent U.S. politicians to boost defence spending.

In a statement, U.S. Ambassador to Canada David Cohen says he is “pleased” to see Canada’s continued commitment to increase spending.

“We welcome Canada’s series of announcements this week, which were capped off by the Prime Minister and Defence Minister’s confirmation of Canada’s commitment and plan to reach the two per cent of GDP threshold in defence spending by 2032,” Cohen said. 

“The United States, Canada, and our NATO Allies need 21st-century defence and security to meet 21st-century challenges, and this plan marks an important positive step toward meeting our shared goals.”

Meanwhile, the Conservatives dismissed Thursday’s announcement, claiming it is another promise Prime Minister Trudeau “won’t keep.”

“No one believes the Liberals are serious with this last-minute desperation to save face at NATO. This isn’t the first empty promise they have made on defence spending,” Conservative defence critic James Bezan said in a statement.

During the questioning period following the announcement, Trudeau alluded to former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper's defence spending.

"Before our government took office, Canada was spending less than one per cent of our GDP on defence," he said. "We vowed to rapidly change that and we followed through on our word. Canada is now in the top five NATO allies when it comes to absolute spending on defence."

In 2014, NATO members pledged to commit at least two per cent of GDP to defence spending. But since Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine in 2022, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has urged allies to embrace two per cent as a floor rather than a ceiling.

According to NATO's latest figures, Canada is on track to reach 1.37 per cent of GDP this year. Twenty-three of 32 NATO member countries are on track to meet or exceed the two per cent pledge in 2024.