Support for the Conservative Party of Canada has been slowly climbing in Quebec under leader Pierre Poilievre.
However, with just days to go before the election, polls suggest the party is still struggling to turn that momentum into seats.
The Liberal Party of Canada’s Mark Carney effect appears to have spoiled Conservative ambitions in the province because, according to pollster Sébastien Dallaire, there was a possibility of a blue wave before former prime minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation.
“But just like elsewhere in Canada, Quebecers’ voting intentions and the way they looked at this federal election [was] completely upended when Donald Trump was elected and started threatening Canada,” Dallaire said.
For decades, the Conservatives have struggled to make in-roads in Quebec.
Support for the party’s predecessor, the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada, peaked in the 1980s when Brian Mulroney swept into power, winning over 50 per cent of the Quebec vote, two elections in a row.
Former MP Gerry Weiner was part of that blue wave.
“I haven’t given up yet. I’m very much hopeful that we can win a seat or two this time,” Weiner said.
When Poilievre took over as leader, support for the Conservatives in Quebec was at 18 per cent.
In January, it rose to 26 per cent and now sits slightly lower at 23 per cent.
The party is projected to pick up two additional seats.
“If you get to 26, 27, 28 on the day of the vote, that can make a big difference. It’s really where it starts to pay off significantly because of the vote splitting with the other parties,” Dallaire said.
The pollster added things aren’t quite over for the Conservatives as the party still has a base of support around Quebec City.
Nevertheless, polls suggest Poilievre’s message isn’t resonating enough with voters to make a dent in Montreal.
Nobody from the Conservative party was available for an interview.
Voters go to the polls across Canada on April 28.
Correction
A previous version of this story stated that former MP Gerry Weiner was the only Conservative to win a seat on the Island of Montreal in the last 40 years. In fact, Robert E.J. Layton, the father of former NDP leader Jack Layton, was the Conservative MP for Lachine from 1984 to 1988. He also represented the Lachine--Lac-Saint-Louis riding from 1988 to 1993.
