NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh may hold the key to trigger the next election now that he's axed his political pact with the Liberals, but strategists say that could prove to be both an asset and a liability.
Singh put an end to the deal the Liberals have relied on since 2022 to keep their minority government from toppling, but he has not signalled plans to vote to bring down that government before the next scheduled election.
The party deliberately spread word that the end of the deal does not mean an election is looming, but that each vote would be considered on a case-by-case basis.
Singh would not take any questions after announcing the news in a video on social media Wednesday, but is expected to hold a press conference Thursday in Toronto.
The decision comes as the Conservatives lead both the Liberals and the NDP in the polls, and Singh tries to position himself as the only viable alternative to Tory Leader Pierre Poilievre.
The NDP will likely want some runway to differentiate themselves from the Liberals before the next election, said Mélanie Richer, Singh's former director of communications and a principal with Earnscliffe Strategies.
"I think they really need to spend the next year talking to those voters who are looking for change in a way that's a little bit less close to the government, that shows the concrete things that they've been able to do to make people's lives better," she said.
The deal has accomplished most of what the NDP had demanded, including a new national dental-care program, and, from a strategic perspective, gave Singh some added credibility with voters, she said.
But while the New Democrats have won over some support from former Liberal voters, they've also lost ground to the Conservatives, she said.
Singh may want time to offer his "vision of change that's very different from the Conservatives," she said.
Poilievre has won favour with working-class voters that in the past may have traditionally supported the NDP in key ridings, including in northern Ontario, said Conservative strategist Ginny Roth.
The Conservative leader is likely to continue to take aim at Singh for propping up the government, as he has for months.
Just hours after Singh said that he had pulled out of the deal, Poilievre had already called the announcement a "stunt" and challenged Singh to vote to bring down the government at the next opportunity.
"There's an easy way for the NDP to avoid that line of attack, and that's to either defeat the government, or to demand something from the government that the government's not willing to give, or that will be difficult for the government to give," said Roth, who served as Poilievre’s director of communications during his leadership race.
"They haven't done that since 2015 and I don't think they have any plans to."
Continuing to support the government in upcoming confidence votes could be a political risk for Singh, said Andrew Perez, a longtime Liberal and strategist with Perez Strategies.
But it's likely less of a risk than remaining tied to the Liberals at this point, he said.
"Pierre Poilievre will no doubt attack Singh as being someone that propped up Trudeau and has no credibility," he said.
"I think it will all come down to how persuasively he is able to communicate."
The political landscape was drastically different when the deal was signed in 2022.
The Liberal government had just renewed its mandate less than a year earlier. The federal government had recently declared a state of emergency after the "Freedom Convoy" demonstration gridlocked downtown Ottawa and international border crossings in protest against COVID-19 restrictions. The Russian invasion of Ukraine had just begun. And Pierre Poilievre had not yet been elected leader of the Conservatives.
Throughout the last tumultuous few years, Singh has helped Trudeau hold onto the longest-serving minority government in a very long time, Perez said.
If Singh's decision leads to an early election now, it would be a political win for Poilievre's Conservatives, he said.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 5, 2024.
