On Feb. 29, 1984, Pierre Trudeau famously took a walk in the snow that, he explained the next day, inspired him to announce that he was leaving politics for good.
Last February, on the 40th anniversary of that poetic moment, there was some speculation that Justin Trudeau might take his own walk in the snow and announce he was stepping down.
He was way down in the polls and Canadians had clearly started to signal a desire for change. But drama teacher Trudeau was not going to exit stage right without chewing the scenery one last time.
In the light of the spectacular failure of his final act on the political stage, I bet he wishes he had.
The curtain didn’t just come down after the Chrystia Freeland debacle; it crashed down on the stage that Trudeau and his formidable chief of staff, Katie Telford, had dominated for so long. They were left under a hail of rotten tomatoes flung by ministers, MPs and the public. It was a shocking finale after an unprecedented debacle.
Trudeau is a complex character, capable of the best and the worst. His monumental ego and his hubris have carried him through innumerable tough spots during his career.
He once boasted of his special connection to Canadians, an acknowledgment that, in addition to his celebrity status, a lot would be forgiven by folks who’d known him, quite literally, since birth. And he was right.
Whether it was elbowing an MP in the chest on the floor of the House of Commons, or his repeated wearing of blackface and brown face in the past coming to light, there seemed to be an unfathomable and inexhaustible supply of forgiveness from his fans.
Since Freeland’s resignation, Trudeau’s once awestruck audience of ministers, MPs, and voters have simply had enough of his play acting.
Canadians might not spend a lot of time discussing the debt-to-GDP ratio, but they do know when a government has completely blown past previously announced fiscal “guardrails” and increased the announced deficit from $40 billion to $60 billion.
Trudeau has gotten a lot of things right during his tenure, from his handling of the pandemic to a new relationship with First Nation, Inuit and Métis peoples.
Overall, however, it’s his disastrous management of the public purse that stands out, and that has caused the Liberals’ precipitous drop in public opinion.
You can’t charm your way out of a negative balance sheet.
Trudeau just went through the motions of a shuffle that had become inevitable as his cabinet had more holes in it than a block of Swiss cheese.
Then, something equally inevitable happened. As Trudeau presented a handful of joyous backbenchers as new ministers, far more had been left dangling. I don’t believe it was coincidence that someone like Toronto MP Rob Oliphant, came out squarely as being in the ‘dump Trudeau’ camp on the same day as the cabinet shuffle.
Trudeau clearly wanted the brass plaque under his official portrait to read Prime Minister 2015-2025. He’ll now get his wish, but at what cost to his legacy, his party and, most importantly, to our country?
Getting out is not going to be easy; there are technical hurdles. Because defeat on a confidence motion is now a near certainty, Trudeau’s options are limited.
He could step down and allow caucus to inform the party of their choice of an interim leader while a shortened leadership race could be organized. But that would simply cause more instability with respect to the incoming U.S. administration. Think of it, three prime ministers in as many months.
Trudeau, never great at planning, clearly failed to contemplate the chaos he would be creating when he stubbornly refused to organize an orderly transition. Now, that transition will take place during the most fraught political moment in Canada’s recent history, a time when we need strength and stability.
His most likely choice will be to use the stratagem that Stephen Harper employed twice: prorogation. That is the emergency brake you can pull when your government is about to fly off the rails.
Prorogation in January, before the return of parliament with the inevitable confidence votes, could allow the Liberal Party to hold a shortened leadership race. Harper once prorogued for over two months. There would be a lot of hand-wringing but nobody could say it’s not allowed.
I’m told that the Liberal Party’s lawyers are also looking to get rid of the category of non-member supporters, who could cloud the picture if they were once again allowed to vote in the leadership race. It’s going to be a procedural mess one way or the other and, again, the last thing Canada needs as it deals with Trump 2.0 is more uncertainty.
We’re probably looking at March before a new leader could be chosen. That leader would need to present a new Throne Speech that would have to be followed by a confidence vote.
The new leader will have had almost no time to prepare for the inevitable general election that would follow a defeat on the Throne Speech vote. There’s always the possibility that one of the opposition parties could change its mind and vote in favour, but that seems highly unlikely, as even the NDP now appears to have resolved to bring down the government.
Beware the ides of March, eh?
Justin Trudeau is following a long Liberal tradition of leaving his successor with as little time as possible to organize an election campaign. Pierre Trudeau did it to John Turner, Jean Chrétien did it to Paul Martin.
Trudeau is giving his party and the country, a Royal ‘Après moi, le déluge’: Once I’m gone, let the floodwaters take them away.
There will be many quality candidates vying for the Liberal Party leadership.
Inside the cabinet, in addition to Chrystia Freeland, the exceptional Anita Anand would have a real shot. Francois-Philippe Champagne and Mélanie Joly would likely run but the Liberals have a tradition, stretching back to Mackenzie King, of alternating between anglophone and francophone leaders.
Outside candidates would include former Bank of Canada governor, Mark Carney, of course, as well as former B.C. Premier Christy Clark.
Carney is a Canadian of outstanding stature. He's the only non-Brit. to have ever been asked to head the Bank of England. He has humble roots, having grown up in the Northwest Territories.
I’ve had the pleasure of inviting him twice to the University of Montreal. Don’t listen to what anyone says about him not knowing how to connect with people. The students loved him as his unparalleled knowledge of the financial world is coupled with a deep understanding of sustainable development. He has a star quality tempered by an innate humbleness. This guy’s for real and he’s obviously made it a point to keep up his good French, another important asset.
Carney was also perspicacious enough to avoid the stinking pile Trudeau had plopped down when he ejected Freeland from finance. Trudeau had seriously underestimated the strength and integrity (and friendship) of Freeland and Carney. They weren’t going to play along with the latest gimmick Trudeau had contrived, to try to save himself.
Christy Clark was an exceptional politician. She is also a brilliant communicator. I’ve had the distinct pleasure of working with her numerous times on television political panels. She’s whip smart with a quick and sometimes acid wit. She’d liven up the leadership race, for sure.
She’s also deeply experienced in the Liberal Party and that could also serve her well. She’s been regularly showing up at major Liberal events and those around her make no secret of her ambitions.
One of her sources let it be known that she’s taking French lessons, and that’s all to her credit. Problem is, in a country where eight million people have French as their first language, you actually have to be able to speak it well enough to take part in a debate. Ask Peter MacKay. That could hobble her campaign as the Liberal Party has remained in power for most of confederation by being able to speak to both solitudes.
May you live in interesting times, the saying goes. These, for our often somnolent country, are definitely interesting times.
Along with all of the analysis of strategies, procedures, votes and candidates, it’s important to bear in mind that this is, first and foremost, about a fabulous country that over 40 million people call home.
That, in the final analysis, will have been Trudeau’s undoing. His failure to put the country above himself.
