Amid new polling indicating most Canadians support boosting Old Age Security (OAS) benefits by 10 per cent for seniors aged 65 to 74, a former Liberal finance minister and former Bank of Canada governor are warning the government not to pursue the policy change.
According to a new Nanos Research survey conducted for CTV News, more than 3 in 4 Canadians support or somewhat support the increase, with support strong across the country, across gender and age groups.
The push to increase OAS is one of two key demands from the Bloc Québécois to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's minority Liberal government.
Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet has given the government until Oct. 29 to help enact a pair of private members’ bills – one of which proposes a 10 per cent increase to OAS for seniors ages 65 to 74 – or risk an election before the new year.
Earlier this week, the Bloc used its one opposition day of the fall sitting to present, and later pass, a symbolic motion on its OAS bill that asked for the government to "take the necessary steps to ensure that a royal recommendation is granted as soon as possible.”
Despite the political pressure, a pair of former economic heavyweights told CTV News Channel's Power Play host Vassy Kapelos that the federal government can't afford to enact the expansion.
"It's really bad policy," said former Liberal finance minister John Manley. "This is not something that should be done on a universal basis. Meeting people's needs, especially the elderly, that's very important. But understand this is not targeted to those who need it. This is universal. It's a bad idea. It's too expensive. There are many other priorities that the government needs to address well before this one."
Former Bank of Canada governor David Dodge agreed. "This is bad economics."
"The last thing that we need to be spending money on at this point in time is boosting consumption for relatively well-off people," Dodge said. "It's just terrible policy, both on economic grounds, but on social grounds as well. This is the most favoured generation."
While most Liberal MPs voted against the Bloc's pension play – expressing concerns about the cost on the precedent of the potential program expansion – the proposal was supported by Conservative, New Democrat and Green MPs, as well as a handful of Liberal backbenchers.
The vote was non-binding, meaning the federal government does not have to act on it.
After the vote, Blanchet said if the Liberals think they'll get any more time on its ultimatum, they should think again.
"They have until a few days from now to go on with the royal recommendation. And if they do not, we will start as rapidly as next week to speak with other opposition parties in order to get ready to go into an election," Blanchet said.
In an interview on CTV Power Play on Wednesday, Government House Leader Karina Gould wouldn't rule out that the Liberals are still trying to find a path forward with the Bloc.
"I don't negotiate in public, and I don't talk about those conversations, but I can say, and I think our government has demonstrated that when it comes to good ideas to support Canadians… We are there for Canadians," she said. "We are open to good ideas."
Asked if given the political dynamics and majority House of Commons and public support for the boost to seniors' benefits that the federal minority government will be pressured to acquiesce, Manley said "polls can say one thing today and a different thing tomorrow."
"It's foolish for leaders to run to follow anyway, they should be running to lead. And I think the need to give an explanation to people about why this is poor policy is evident by the polling result," he said.
In an interview with CTV's Power Play last week, Parliamentary Budget Officer Yves Giroux said it may be "a bit tricky" for the federal government to meet its fiscal anchors if it acquiesces to the Bloc’s demand to expand the OAS. Giroux calculates that demand would come with an annual price tag of more than $3 billion, with a total cost of $16.1 billion over five years.
Last year, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged new fiscal guardrails aimed at limiting spending and deficits.
Methodology
The Nanos Research poll randomly surveyed 1,058 Canadians aged 18 years or older between Sept. 29 and Oct. 2. Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land- and cell-lines) hybrid telephone and online random survey. The margin of error for this survey is 3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
