VIENTIANE, LAOS -- In Laos, as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau pursues closer economic ties with the 10 nations of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the widening global conflict will linger on the margin of the summit like a spectre that can’t be ignored.
The biannual summit is being held in the capital city of Vientiane, and marks Trudeau’s first official visit to Laos. The theme of this year’s summit is to build a “Connected and Resilient Community.”
As the chair country, Laos is focused on narrowing the development gap by strengthening ASEAN’s relations with its external partners.
According to data from the Prime Minister’s Office, ASEAN is Canada’s fourth largest trading partner. In 2023, more than $38.8 billion flowed in bilateral trade between Canada and the economic block which includes fast growing economies such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines. Trade has doubled between Canada and ASEAN since 2015.
Canada began free trade talks with ASEAN in 2021 and has set a goal of negotiating a deal by the end of 2025. Ottawa is also negotiating a separate free trade deal with Indonesia, the largest country in the region. Those negotiations will conclude at the end of this year.
In a news release the Prime Minister said he will use the summit to “underscore the importance of sustainable long-term growth, that “empowers women and girls and is anchored in the clean energy transition.”
Trudeau and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, are the only two G7 leaders who are attending ASEAN.
Shifting attitudes toward China
Last year, Canada and ASEAN entered into a strategic partnership to collaborate in areas of mutual interest including peace and security along with economic and social-cultural co-operation.
Senior government sources said that they’re working to “build Canada into the architecture of the region.” One example cited by officials is the opening of an agriculture office in Manila, Philippines.
Expanded trade with southeast Asia is key to the Trudeau government’s Indo-Pacific strategy to counterbalance China’s influence. But as Ottawa puts guardrails around its relationship, a 2024 state of Southeast Asia report shows that ASEAN has become more open to embracing Beijing.
The survey of nearly 2,000 government officials, private sector stakeholders and academics conducted by Singapore’s Yusof Ishak Institute found that 59.5 per cent of respondents saw China as the most influential economic force in the region.
When asked to choose between the United States and China, 50.5 per cent of respondents said they preferred alignment with the Communist State. Just a year earlier, 61 per cent preferred the U.S. over China.
Economic synergy and diplomatic divide
While economic growth will be the focus of the summit, it’s possible tensions could arise during bilateral talks surrounding Canada’s position on two ongoing wars.
The same survey conducted by Singapore’s Yusof Ishok Institutefound that 46.5 per cent of respondents said their biggest geopolitical concernwas the Israel-Hamas war.
The Muslim-majority countries of Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei and Singapore ranked the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israeli civilians and the ensuing humanitarian crisis as the top global security issue.
Another area of friction that could arise involves Canada’s support of Kyiv and disdain for Moscow.
In particular, Malaysia’s President Anwar bin Ibrahim has invited Vladimir Putin to meet with ASEAN members when he becomes the chair of the association next year.
When asked how Trudeau will respond if the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine are brought up in discussions, the senior PMO source said ASEAN rarely acts as a block on geopolitical issues, but that it’s important to “engage in frank discussions” with individual partners to discuss a “broad path forward.”
