Temperatures soared over the weekend and Edmonton hit highs of 13 C on Saturday and 10 C on Sunday.
Saturday’s high of 12.5 C set a new record for Feb. 22, beating the old record high of 11.7 C from 1958.
Needless to say, the actual highs were WELL above the forecast highs for the weekend. It’s not uncommon to see that happen when you get a big swing in temperature, particularly at this time of year.
The model guidance is often too slow or doesn’t catch the full extent. So, those of us interpreting that model data have to massage those numbers and we STILL seriously underestimated the warming potential of this past weekend.
To be honest, I think the models are (mostly) still in catch-up mode and not doing a great job reflecting the current temperature regime we’ve found ourselves in. That means there still some educated guesswork going on with the forecast temperatures.
Bottom line: It’s going to continue to be warm throughout this week, but there’s some uncertainty with just HOW WARM each day will be.
For today, I’m thinking a high in the 6-10 C range seems very likely, so I’m splitting the difference and going with a forecast high of 8 C.
In fact, most of the week should be in the 5-10 C range, with Thursday having the best potential to get to 10 C again.
No significant snow or rain is expected in the Edmonton area. However, we WILL see a few blasts of wet snow in northeastern Alberta over the next few days and that could bring several centimetres of fresh accumulation by the end of the week.
The first of those snowfalls comes late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning and hits areas from Lac La Biche/Cold Lake north to the border. Most of the heavier snow should be around and north of Fort McMurray.
Looking long range: Temperatures may cool slightly next week, but should remain above average (and above 0 C) right through the first week to 10 days of March.
There might be one or two days with a high around the freezing mark. But, there’s no indication that we’ll see cold air return any time soon.
Here’s the forecast for Edmonton and area:
Today - Partly cloudy.
High: 8
Tonight - A few clouds.
9pm: 2
Tuesday - Sunny with a few clouds.
Morning Low: -5
Afternoon High: 7
Wednesday - Mix of sun & cloud.
Morning Low: -3
Afternoon High: 8
Thursday - Mix of sun & cloud.
Morning Low: -2
Afternoon High: 9
Friday - Partly cloudy.
Morning Low: -3
Afternoon High: 6
Saturday - Mix of sun & cloud.
Morning Low: -3
Afternoon High: 7
