There will likely be more Canadians leaving the workforce than entering it over the next few decades as the country’s senior population grows, according to new data from Statistics Canada. Experts say this will not only exacerbate existing labour shortages, but could result in higher wages for employees.
As of November 2023, there were approximately 2.7 million Canadians aged 15 to 24 who said they were employed, compared to more than 4.4 million people aged 55 and older who had a job. This is based on data from Statistics Canada’s latest labour force survey, which also shows a wide difference in the total population of Canadians 15 to 24 years of age compared to those aged 55 and older, with 4.7 million and 12.4 million people, respectively.
“This means that there are potentially more people prepared to leave the labour force because of retirement than there are entrants to replace these workers,” reads a note prepared by Jane Badets, senior adviser at Environics Analytics, a marketing and analytical services company owned by Bell Canada.
This comes amid new statistics from Environics Analytics that show Canada’s senior population is projected to surpass 11 million by 2043. The data, based on a special analysis for CTV News, paints the senior population as the fastest-growing age group in the country.
Canada is already facing labour shortages across several sectors, largely due to the country’s aging population, said Stephen Tapp, chief economist for the Canadian Chamber of Commerce. Over the next few years, more Canadians born between 1946 and 1964 – also known as the baby boomer generation – will be entering their senior years and likely retiring. Without a boost in the number of young Canadians entering the workforce, existing labour gaps will only become larger, Tapp said.
“(We’re) in a more labour-scarce world,” Tapp told CTVNews.ca in a telephone interview. “Things are getting tighter and more difficult … It will get worse over the next 10 to 15 years.”
Businesses of all sizes and across every industry have complained of labour shortages for months, with experts saying Canada’s aging workforce is among the factors to blame. These shortages could lead to a reduction in labour input as well as economic growth, a recent study shows.
Conducted by the RAND Corporation, a research organization based in the United States, the study published in 2016 and revised in 2022 shows a link between an aging workforce and national economic performance. Looking at U.S. data, researchers discovered that with each 10 per cent increase in the fraction of the population aged 60 and older, per-capita GDP decreased by 5.5 per cent.
“Our estimate implies population aging reduced the growth rate in GDP per capita by 0.3 percentage points per year during 1980 (to) 2010,” the paper reads.
A study published in August by the Fraser Institute, a conservative think tank, came to a similar conclusion. Researchers determined that every 10 per cent increase in the senior population is linked to a slight decrease in the real GDP per capita growth rate.
“This result implies that, in 2021 dollars, Canada’s GDP per capita will be lower by $4,300 (per person) by 2043 under Statistics Canada’s slow-aging population projection scenario and by $11,200 under its fast-aging scenario,” reads a press release issued earlier this year.
A report published by the federal government in 2018 already indicated that Canada was seeing “proportionally fewer young people moving into the workforce to replace the increasing number of older individuals retiring.”
Adding to this is what is expected to be an increase in the number of Canadians who are retiring year-over-year. An analysis of labour force survey data by the left-leaning Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives (CCPA) revealed 73,000 more people retired in the year ending August 2022 compared to the year prior.
Some sectors can expect to see greater labour shortages than others, Tapp said. Amid a lack of nurses and physicians, Canada’s health-care sector is likely to continue facing labour shortages as demand for services increases with an aging population, said Ted McDonald, a political science professor at the University of New Brunswick.
“Those labour shortages have direct implications for patient outcomes as well as the broader economy,” McDonald told CTVNews.ca in a telephone interview.
Health care is among the industry sectors that are currently seeing some of the highest job vacancy rates, according to the most recently available data from Statistics Canada.
Across all industries, the job vacancy rate was 3.9 per cent as of September, but within the health-care and social assistance sector, that rate was 5.6 per cent. Other sectors with job vacancy rates above the four-per-cent mark include construction, and accommodation and food services, at 4.7 and 6.2 per cent, respectively.
Sectors such as transportation are also likely to experience tighter labour market conditions in the years to come, as they have a higher number of older workers, according to a research note produced by Environics Analytics.
The ratio of older to younger workers varies by occupation, according to the latest census data from 2021. Younger workers include employees aged 25 to 34, whereas older workers includes those aged 55 and above. Examples of some of the occupations that have more older than younger workers include bus drivers and other transit operators. In these occupations, the number of older employees is more than four times higher than the number of younger employees.
Alternatively, the employment rate among 25- to 54-year-olds born in Canada from 2010 to 2021 has seen a two-per-cent increase, according to data from Statistics Canada.
As more of Canada’s older employees exit the workforce, transferring their knowledge to younger workers can become a challenge, Tapp said. As a result, providing adequate training will be key, he said. This not only includes properly training new hires, but also offering technical training to older employees who may choose to continue working beyond the age of 65. Some of these workers may need to be trained on how to use new tools or technology to perform old tasks, he said.
“If we have older people staying in the labour force longer, they're going to need to stay up on their on their skillsets and to be retrained more frequently than they would have been before,” he said.
Although the road ahead may present challenges for employers facing an increasingly tight market, conditions may be beneficial for workers, said Tapp.
With more Canadians expected to leave the workforce than enter it, workplaces may struggle with obtaining and retaining employees. As an incentive when hiring, they may be more likely to offer increased wage rates to fill gaps within their labour force, he said.
“In any kind of market where there’s fewer workers … the market is going to have to pay them more and their wages are going to be increased to entice them to come in,” he said. “It’s good news if you’re looking from a household perspective … The balance of power has really shifted.”
Tapp said he expects to see wages increase more than two per cent each year to account for annual inflation.
Another trend McDonald expects to see emerge is a continued boom in the use of artificial intelligence technology. Struggles to secure labour will likely prompt more businesses to explore ways to automate processes, he said, which may allow them to hire fewer people.
“You look at alternative ways to continue to operate,” McDonald said.
While Canada’s workforce may be aging, some employees are continuing to work for longer, data shows. In 2022, nearly one million Canadians were working at the age of 65 or older, making up five per cent of the total labour force in Canada that year, Statistics Canada data shows.
Additionally, the average retirement age in Canada has been steadily increasing over the last two decades. In 2022, the average retirement age was 64.6 years. This is approximately four years older than the average age reported in 1998, which was 60.9.
CTVNews.ca heard from a handful of Canadians who said they are considering delaying their retirement in an effort to save more money – Anita Newson is one of them. Living in Halifax, the 60-year-old said she plans to delay her retirement “indefinitely” due to the elevated cost of living.
“I had hoped to pay off some debt and retire this year but that didn't happen and I am actually further in debt,” she wrote in an email to CTVNews.ca. “I may not ever retire.”
Instead, Newson said she plans to work for as long as her health permits. In response to the rising cost of daily expenses, Newson said she has begun to scale back spending on birthdays and holidays, as well as eating at restaurants and visiting movie theatres.
“It is becoming more frightening thinking about how I will support myself when and if I retire,” she wrote. “I am a renter and rent goes up every year, pensions do not.”
Newson said she only expects her pension to be able to cover her monthly rent payments, leaving her with no choice but to continue working to cover other expenses such as food.
Stewart Turnbull said he finds himself in a similar position. The 56-year-old living in Victoria, B.C., owns a single-family home and works full-time as a customer service manager. Upon retiring, he planned to sell his home and purchase a smaller property farther from the downtown core, he said.
However, when his three-year mortgage agreement went up for renewal in March, the rise in interest rates increased his payments by about $900 per month, he said.
Turnbull and his partner recently put their home up for sale, but they are unsure of whether they will receive enough money to purchase a new home and comfortably retire at 65. Without much money accumulated in savings, Turnbull said he is not convinced his pension will be enough to cover daily expenses if he stopped working.
“We are trying to leverage whatever equity we have in this house into sort of a rescue mission after interest rates totally annihilated any extra money we had on a monthly basis,” he told CTVNews.ca in a telephone interview. “I hoped it would be worth enough that we could possibly retire but I’m not 100 per cent sure that that’s going to happen.”
Stewart Turnbull, 56, planned to sell his home in Victoria, B.C., and use the extra money to retire. But with increasing mortgage payments as a result of high interest rates, and little money saved up, he's unsure of whether selling his home will leave him with enough money to comfortably retire at 65. Turnbull, left, appears in this image with his partner. (HANDOUT / CTVNews.ca)
Instead, Turnbull is not planning for retirement and anticipates he will have to continue working beyond the age of 65 to continue to afford his daily expenses. He has also made some lifestyle changes over recent months in order to adjust to the elevated cost of living. This includes hanging his clothes to dry in order to lower his electricity bill, and downgrading his cell phone bill so monthly fees are less expensive, he said.
“It has become clear to me that retirement is no longer an option,” he wrote in an email to CTVNews.ca.
National labour force survey results released in August show that many Canadian workers would delay their retirement if given the option to work fewer hours without affecting their pension. Additionally, employees aged 65 and older have been making up a larger proportion of the total working population in Canada over the last few years, data shows.
In 2010, employed seniors made up three per cent of the total workforce, according to Statistics Canada. Fast forward to 2022, and working seniors accounted for five per cent of all Canadians employed that year.
But according to Tapp, this could be due to the growing number of seniors in Canada as opposed to a shift in retirement patterns.
In order to fill existing gaps within the country’s workforce throughout the years, the federal government appears to be relying on immigration, McDonald said.
Over the last decade, the share of new and recent immigrant workers grew the most quickly in accommodation and food services, as well as transportation and warehousing, according to 2021 Statistics Canada census data. Other sectors that saw relatively high levels of immigrant workers include manufacturing and health services.
Many of Canada’s new immigrants are skilled workers who apply for permanent residency through the Express Entry program. Using a comprehensive ranking system, points are awarded to applicants based on their age, language proficiency, level of education and work experience, and those with the highest scores are admitted. In an effort to address labour market shortages, it was recently announced that the program would prioritize skills and work experience in fields such as health care, STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics), trades, transport and agriculture.
In a recent announcement, Canada’s immigration minister also shared federal government plans to increase permanent resident targets to 485,000 in 2024 and 500,000 in 2025 before holding this number steady at half a million permanent residents in 2026.
But how much these policies will help strengthen the country’s workforce remains to be seen, McDonald said.
CTV News is a division of Bell Media, which is part of BCE Inc.
Edited by Mary Nersessian, graphics produced by Jesse Tahirali
U.S. president-elect Donald Trump has nominated former diplomat and U.S. congressman Pete Hoekstra to be the American ambassador to Canada.
A group of researchers say they have more evidence to suggest the COVID-19 pandemic started in a Chinese seafood market where it spread from infected animals to humans. The evidence is laid out in a recent study published in Cell, a scientific journal, nearly five years after the first known COVID-19 outbreak.
The average salary needed to buy a home keeps inching down in cities across Canada, according to the latest data.
A London father and son they’re shocked and confused after their home was riddled with bullets while young children were sleeping inside.
Police in Peru have arrested a man caught trying to leave the country with 320 tarantulas, 110 centipedes and nine bullet ants strapped to his body.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced embattled minister Randy Boissonnault is out of cabinet.
A four-month-old baby is dead after what Toronto police are calling a “suspicious incident” at a Toronto Community Housing building in the city’s midtown area on Wednesday afternoon.
A Saskatchewan woman who refused to provide a breath sample after being stopped by police in Regina did not break the law – as the officer's request was deemed not lawful given the circumstances.
The families of the victims of Paul Bernardo will be allowed to attend the serial killer’s upcoming parole hearing in person, the Parole Board of Canada (PBC) says.
Several thousand British Columbians remain in the dark Wednesday morning after a windstorm known as a bomb cyclone slammed coastal communities.
A UBC instructor is facing backlash following the release of a 12-minute audio file from a lecture she gave on Sept. 18.
The clean up was well underway Wednesday on Vancouver Island after a night of chaos.
A four-month-old baby is dead after what Toronto police are calling a “suspicious incident” at a Toronto Community Housing building in the city’s midtown area on Wednesday afternoon.
A Markham hockey buff who built a massive backyard ice rink without permissions or permits has reluctantly agreed to remove the sprawling surface, following a years-long dispute with the city and his neighbours.
Toronto is looking to retrofit its heavy-duty vehicles with side guards in an effort to reduce pedestrian deaths.
The Calgary Zoo says its two-year-old western lowland gorilla named Eyare died after being hit by a hydraulic door at the rear of the exhibit.
There is quite the buzz around the small southern Alberta town of Nanton over its fall stage production, and for more reasons than one.
Calgary police are seeking public assistance in relation to a Tuesday fire in Hillhurst that they believe was deliberately set.
The consortium responsible for building Ottawa's new north-south line, TransitNext, says it is ready for the City of Ottawa to begin the final phase of approvals before opening the line to the public.
Thirty-nine new photo radar cameras will be installed to keep an eye on Ottawa roads over the next 14 months, including on roads in the rural villages of Dunrobin, Manotick, Richmond and Vars.
One of Canada's premier high-end gym chains is set to open in Ottawa on Wednesday.
Facing criticism for requiring health care workers with two jobs within the public system to choose one to comply with labour laws, Santé Québec has announced a one-year extension to the transition period.
A family in Rosemont-La-Petite-Patrie is facing an emotional upheaval as the STM moves forward with expropriating their home for a new mechanical ventilation station to serve the Orange Line.
A Saint-Sauveur couple was back in court on Wednesday, accused of attacking a teenager over a prank.
As we head into the holiday season, one Edmonton small business owner says she's shutting down online orders – something not all businesses may be able to do
Former prime minister Stephen Harper is the new chairman of the Alberta Investment Management Corporation, or AIMCo, which oversees more than $160 billion in funds, including pension funds and the Heritage Savings Trust Fund.
Dale McFee will retire as head of the Edmonton Police Service (EPS) on Feb. 21, the Edmonton Police Commission said in an email on Wednesday.
A school bus hit parked vehicles and pushed one into a Middle Sackville, N.S., home Wednesday afternoon.
A 19-year-old is facing charges after video of him allegedly driving close to 200 km/h while holding alcohol was shared on social media in the Yarmouth, N.S., area.
The RCMP in Nova Scotia is searching for a man wanted on a provincewide warrant following an incident in North Preston.
A Winnipeg woman is warning others to be on guard after she was nearly duped by an elaborate scam involving fake Manitoba Hydro workers, Bitcoin machines, and a “frightening” amount of her own personal information.
Illegal cigarettes in Manitoba are taking a big chunk out of the market.
A recent drop in river levels is turning back the pages of time in Winnipeg and opening the doors to a hobby that is attracting people who aren’t afraid to get their feet wet and their hands dirty with an interest in Manitoba history, also known as mudlarking.
Former Saskatchewan Party MLA Greg Lawrence has been sentenced to 12 months probation – after pleading guilty to one count of assault.
A Saskatchewan woman who refused to provide a breath sample after being stopped by police in Regina did not break the law – as the officer's request was deemed not lawful given the circumstances.
Many commuters in and outside of Regina are facing tough driving conditions Wednesday morning following a significant snowfall on Tuesday that has closed highways and snarled traffic on many of the city's main throughfares.
A man who plead guilty to a double stabbing in 2015 will soon be out on statutory release, but he'll have to follow some strict conditions set out by the parole board.
The Waterloo Regional Police Service presented their 2025 budget, totaling $252.5 million, to the Region of Waterloo’s Strategic Planning and Budget Committee on Wednesday morning.
The families of the victims of Paul Bernardo will be allowed to attend the serial killer’s upcoming parole hearing in person, the Parole Board of Canada (PBC) says.
A 15-year-old girl who was set on fire at a Saskatoon high school earlier this fall is still recovering in hospital.
A Saskatoon teen accused of driving a car involved in a high-speed crash that killed a 16-year-old last spring has pleaded guilty to his charges.
Former Saskatchewan Party MLA Greg Lawrence has been sentenced to 12 months probation – after pleading guilty to one count of assault.
The owner at a North Bay rental home has been fined and seven people displaced after a kitchen fire Tuesday.
Next week, Sudbury city council will decide how to rehabilitate the College Street underpass, which was built in 1949.
A Canadian Taylor Swift fan has some 'Bad Blood' with the Calgary International Airport after security staff confiscated hundreds of dollars worth of beads she was going to use to make friendship bracelets.
A London father and son they’re shocked and confused after their home was riddled with bullets while young children were sleeping inside.
They were raising a glass to a new business in St. Clair Township, but now it appears the cap has to go back on the bottle.
Back in July, Nicolas Lemke plead guilty to impaired driving causing the death of Aiden Curtis, and impaired driving causing bodily harm to two other adults who were injured.
Several apparent homemade explosive devices were found inside an RV where an allegedly armed man had barricaded himself for 16 hours, forcing evacuations in the north end of Barrie, police said.
Weeks after more than a dozen mayors, including Barrie mayor Alex Nuttall, signed a letter to Premier Doug Ford asking him to consider using the notwithstanding clause as cities struggle with how to handle growing encampments, a coalition of councillors are speaking out against its potential use.
With some milder winters in recent years Barrie city councillors are exploring if there's an appetite to dine outdoors in the coldest months of the year.
*WARNING: This story contains graphic content that some may find disturbing. Reader's discretion is advised.*
Town of Essex councillors have voted not to move ahead with a hiring freeze meant to tackle a six per cent tax levy increase that is currently on the table.
A Kingsville family, who for years put up elaborate Christmas lights and decor outside their home on Marshwoods Boulevard, has instead put up a for sale sign this year.
The clean up was well underway Wednesday on Vancouver Island after a night of chaos.
Several thousand British Columbians remain in the dark Wednesday morning after a windstorm known as a bomb cyclone slammed coastal communities.
One person is unaccounted for after a fire that destroyed a home in Nanaimo's south end Wednesday morning.
Police are appealing for information on a targeted shooting that resulted in the hospitalization of a man in Kamloops.
British Columbia's independent police watchdog has cleared officers of wrongdoing in a crash where three people were killed south of Kamloops in July of last year.
A B.C. woman who stole more than $14,000 in volunteer-raised funds that were supposed to be spent on school supplies and programs – including hot meals for vulnerable kids – won't spend any time in jail.
There’s a new way to give this holiday season.
Lethbridge police say four teenagers have been arrested in connection with an autumn attack that saw a 16-year-old badly injured.
Some Lethbridge residents will be heading to the polls next month to elect their next MLA. The Government of Alberta announced the Lethbridge-West byelection will take place on Dec. 18.
Students in Sault College’s business accounting program have a new learning pathway that will ultimately give them a head start to a career.
The Transport Safety Board of Canada says the crew of a Porter Airlines flight landing in Sault Ste. Marie in April 2023 didn't realize the plane was so far down the runway.
The owner at a North Bay rental home has been fined and seven people displaced after a kitchen fire Tuesday.
An international group led by a Canadian is in Rome this week to push the Catholic Church to adopt a zero-tolerance policy on abuse by clergy.
A company hoping to build a multi-billion-dollar wind-to-hydrogen project in western Newfoundland is eyeing other options as Canada's plans to supply Europe with green energy have not yet materialized.
The four women sipping tea around an antique wooden table in rural Newfoundland said they weren't looking for much in a mate: kindness, humour, a good sense of fun and, ideally, a full set of teeth.
After driving near the water that winter day, Brian Lavery thought he saw a dog splashing in the waves – then realized it was way too cold for that.
Toronto radio and podcast host Jax Irwin has recently gone viral for videos of her cute -- and at times confusing -- phone conversations.
Two young women from New Brunswick have won one of the most prestigious and sought-after academic honours in the world.
Stretching 3,000 kilometres from the tip of New Zealand to its southernmost point, with just a bicycle for transport and a tent to call home, bikepacking event Tour Aotearoa is not for the faint of heart.
When he first moved to his urban neighbourhood, Barry Devonald was surprised to be welcomed by a whole flock of new neighbours.
When George Arcioni began renovating his kitchen last summer, he didn’t expect to find a stack of letters hidden in the wall behind his oven.
A Nova Scotia couple fulfilled their wildest dreams Thursday night when they got engaged at Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour in Toronto.
Some Calgary residents caught what appeared to be a meteor streaking across the sky early on Wednesday morning.
Four years ago, Phill Hebb started up 'Phil’s Unique Birdhouses' and since then, they’ve made their way all across Canada and into the United States.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced embattled minister Randy Boissonnault is out of cabinet.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford says there is 'clear consensus' among premiers for separate bilateral trade deals with the U.S. and Mexico, following a phone call with all the leaders on Wednesday.
Canadian human rights advocate and former Liberal justice minister Irwin Cotler — who was the target of an alleged foiled assassination plot by agents of Iran — says he isn’t concerned about the alleged threats, because he has confidence in his protective detail.
A Dallas anesthesiologist was sentenced Wednesday to 190 years in prison for injecting a nerve-blocking agent and other drugs into bags of intravenous fluid at a surgical center where he worked, leading to the death of a coworker and causing cardiac emergencies for several patients.
A measles outbreak in New Brunswick that began last month with a single travel-related case is growing and today stands at 44 cases.
Raw pistachios sold by Nutworks are being recalled in Ontario due to possible Salmonella contamination.
Australia’s communications minister introduced a world-first law into Parliament on Thursday that would ban children younger than 16 from social media, saying online safety was one of parents’ toughest challenges.
President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to repeal President Joe Biden's signature artificial intelligence policy when he returns to the White House.
Giraffe populations are declining at such an alarming rate — from habitat loss, poaching, urbanization and climate change-fueled drought — that U.S. wildlife officials announced a proposal on Wednesday to help protect several of the species.
Lady Gaga is returning to the desert to mark her second appearance as the headliner for Southern California’s Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival.
Liam Payne's family, friends and former bandmates have come together to pay tribute to the British singer at his funeral in England on Wednesday, just over a month after the One Direction star died aged 31 in Argentina.
Post Malone and Morgan Wallen's collaboration 'I Had Some Help' could make both men big winners at Wednesday’s night's Country Music Association Awards.
Black Friday and Cyber Monday are quickly approaching, meaning many people will be looking to score a deal ahead of the holidays. There are some precautions to take before shopping online.
The union representing port supervisors in British Columbia is formally challenging the legal and constitutional authority of the federal labour minister to order them back to work.
The heat has been turned up on two Canadian frozen-potato giants who have been named in separate price-fixing lawsuits south of the border.
After driving near the water that winter day, Brian Lavery thought he saw a dog splashing in the waves – then realized it was way too cold for that.
CTVNews.ca wants to hear from digital nomads who have taken up location-independent jobs and can work from anywhere with an internet connection.
Delta Air Lines’ newest dining option for first class passengers isn’t anything fancy. In fact, it’s the exact opposite, because it’s fast food.
Major League Baseball will test robot umpires as part of a challenge system during spring training at 13 ballparks hosting 19 teams, which could lead to regular-season use in 2026.
Since 2022, Dutch-born rider Rien Schuurhuis has become the first cyclist to compete for the tiny city-state of the Vatican at an elite level.
If the latest dance sweeping the sports world is any indication, Donald Trump and the NFL might get along much better in his second term in the White House than they did the first time around.
Even though sales of electric vehicles aren't growing as fast as in past years and President-elect Donald Trump may ditch tax credits for EV buyers, automakers are moving ahead with new models that should appeal to mainstream buyers.
A Saskatchewan woman who refused to provide a breath sample after being stopped by police in Regina did not break the law – as the officer's request was deemed not lawful given the circumstances.
In Canada a car is stolen every six minutes, though some vehicles are more sought after than others.
The Shopping Trends team is independent of the journalists at CTV News. We may earn a commission when you use our links to shop. Read about us.
