Fewer than 1/3 Canadians optimistic for future of middle class: survey

Fewer than 31 per cent of Canadians are optimistic about the future of Canada’s middle class, according to the latest class identity survey by research firm Pollara Strategic Insights. 

The survey is Pollara's seventh in a series that began tracking Canadian class identity in 2014 and reveals that Canadians are less optimistic about the future of the country's middle class now than at any time in the past nine years. The last time the survey was distributed, in August 2020, just over half of Canadians felt optimistic about the middle class.

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"There has been a huge drop in middle class optimism in recent years," the study reads.

Prior to this year, and with the exception of a minor dip from 2017 to 2018, the level of optimism had generally increased over time from 45 per cent in 2014 to 53 per cent in 2020. 

AREAS OF CONCERN

The study doesn't attempt to explain why middle-class optimism is so low, but respondents' definitions of middle-class life and their specific concerns offer some clues. 

When asked to define "middle class" in their own words, respondents largely described a comfortable lifestyle with an average income and the ability to afford a house as the key elements.

"We live comfortably, but we do stress about money," wrote one respondent. "Like how are we going to keep living comfortably with the inflation and our salary not getting any better?"

It turns out the majority of Canadians share the same concerns, with 43 per cent of self-identified middle-class respondents saying they are just getting by with no savings and 15 per cent falling behind on their monthly expenses. 

Nor do most think the situation will improve for future generations. Pollara found parents are increasingly pessimistic about their children’s future, with only 52 per cent confident their kids can be middle class or higher through hard work compared to 79 per cent in 2020.

Paradoxically, 77 per cent feel that Canada’s middle class is shrinking, even as the percentage of Canadians who self-identify as middle class has stayed consistent in recent years.

There also appears to be some confusion about who the middle class encompasses, with both high- and low-income earners claiming the label. 

High-income earners almost all consider themselves middle class – even those with an annual household income higher than $150,000 – while those earning under $50,000 per household are equally likely to see themselves as lower class, poor, working class and middle class.

When forced to choose, more Canadians identified themselves as middle class than working class, poor or upper class.

The report comes on the heels of new data from Nanos Research that revealed 47 per cent of people aged 18 to 34 and 41 per cent of those aged 35 to 54 said they are worried about paying housing costs in the next month. 

Similarly, Nanos' weekly consumer confidence tracking last month found that when it comes to Canadians' personal finances, 48.4 per cent of respondents said they feel worse off than they were last year.

METHODOLOGY 

Pollara conducted an online survey of 3,000 randomly-selected adult Canadians from Nov. 3 to 5. Surveys were distributed in all provinces, but not in the territories. A probability sample of this size carries a margin of error of ± 1.8 per cent, 19 times out of 20. Data has been weighted using the most current gender, age and region census data, to ensure the sample reflects the actual population of adult Canadians. This is the seventh wave of this tracking survey. Previous waves were fielded in August 2020, April 2019, April 2018, March 2017, March 2015 and November 2014.