Trump Media slumps as bets on Harris victory rise after presidential debate
The stock price chart for the Trump Media and Technology Group on the NASDAQ website is seen on a computer screen in New York on Friday, April 19, 2024. (Patrick Sison / AP Photo)
Shares of Republican candidate Donald Trump's company that owns the Truth Social slumped 14 per cent in busy trading on Wednesday as betting odds of a win for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris grew after a combative U.S. presidential debate.
Harris put Trump on the defensive with a stream of attacks on his fitness for office, his support of abortion restrictions and his myriad legal woes, prompting a visibly angry Trump to deliver a series of falsehood-filled retorts.
Trump has a more than 50 per cent stake in Trump Media & Technology Group, which has a market value of US$3.7 billion. Its shares are popular among retail traders and sensitive to the former president's chances of a win in the 2024 election.
The stock has slumped nearly 60 per cent since mid-July as Harris' chances improved against Trump after she replaced President Joe Biden as the Democratic candidate.
After the debate, pricing for a Trump victory slipped by 6 cents to 47 cents with a potential $1 payout on online betting site PredictIt, while Harris' odds rose to 57 cents from 53 cents.
"At this point, DJT is the betting stock for Trump winning," said Matthew Tuttle, CEO of Tuttle Capital Management.
Harris' candidacy also received a boost after pop megastar Taylor Swift told her 280 million Instagram followers in a post that she will vote for the Democratic candidate.
"The U.S. Presidential debate achieved its goal by providing a decisive edge to one of the candidates in what has been an exceptionally close race," said Charu Chanana, global market strategist at investment platform Saxo.
Trump Media's valuation equals more than 900 times the money-losing company's revenue of US$4.1 million in 2023, far exceeding the worth of companies with bigger revenue.
For instance, Meta Platforms, which generated US$131.9 billion from goods and services in 2023, has a price-to-revenue valuation of 9.6, according to LSEG data.
About 5.8 million shares exchanged hands within minutes of the market open, nearly the same as its 25-day moving average volume.
Upcoming lock-up expiry
Since its listing through a reverse merger with a blank check firm in March, TMTG's market value has jumped as much as US$9.2 billion as expectations of Trump victory rose. The stock has slumped 76 per cent from its March peak.
An upcoming shareholder lock-up expiry could allow Trump and other investors to offload some shares as early as next week, potentially increasing the supply of shares and adding more pressure on the stock.
If the stock price remains at or above US$12 for any 20 trading days from Aug. 22, then Trump will be free to sell shares beginning Sept. 20. Otherwise, the six-month lock-up expires on Sept. 25. The stock was last trading at US$16.09.
"If he wins (the election) he doesn't have to sell his shares and DJT can grow into something. If he loses, he has to sell his shares to pay legal bills and it is unlikely DJT is a going concern," Tuttle said.
(Reporting by Medha Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Saumyadeb Chakrabarty and Leroy Leo)
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