Halloween candy, 'shrinkflation' and spending habits: What experts say could change this spooky season

CTV National News: Hit by 'skimpflation' in foods Melanie Nagy reports on the troubling trend of ‘skimpflation,’ in which the quality of certain foods is quietly downgraded.

Halloween is a celebration often spent indulging in chocolate, binging scary movies, and perhaps investing time and money into creative costume designs. But for many Canadians, the preparations can be costly.

For candy alone, the average household will spend anywhere from $25 to $40, according to Sylvain Charlebois, director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University.

Amid a year of inflation that has driven food costs up, and the trend of "shrinkflation" reportedly making food products smaller, consumers are seemingly getting less bang for their buck.

With Halloween just around the corner, how will Canadians' spending habits change ahead of the spooky season?

KEY CANDY INGREDIENT COSTS ARE UP

According to the Canadian Sugar Institute, the Canadian sugar industry produces approximately 1.4 million tonnes of refined sugar each year in four provinces. In 2022, the estimated value of sugar shipments in Canada was approximately $1.4 billion.

As of October, the retail price for sugar in Canada ranged between $1.35 and $3.16 per kilogram.

And according to Charlebois, sugar prices have reached their highest levels since 2011, while cocoa prices are at a 44-year high. He says this is due to factors such as droughts, pests and broader market forces.

"These trends have been observable for an extended period and are expected to continue affecting various sectors of the food industry for several months," Charlebois said in an email to CTVNews.ca.

In an op-ed for Retail Insider, Charlebois adds that shortages in sugar are reportedly surfacing and commercial bakers are being encouraged to decrease their purchases.

He also pointed to the effects of a labour dispute involving Rogers Sugar and its Vancouver-based plant.

"If this labour dispute persists, consumers may soon find themselves asked to limit their purchases as well. Such a situation should discourage stockpiling, especially during a period of significant food inflation."

He adds that price adjustments are expected in the coming months, which will affect Halloween and subsequent holidays, all the way up until Valentine's Day.

'SHRINKFLATION'

Meanwhile, Stephanie Douglas, a certified financial planner at Harris Douglas Asset Management in Toronto, is also seeing prices go up as the size of treats goes down.

"Prices have increased for raw goods. For example, sugar and cocoa prices have both increased, which has had an impact on prices," Douglas told CTVNews.ca in an email.

"Production costs have also increased. You will notice higher prices and smaller portion sizes this year for popular Halloween candy."

A relatively new phenomenon, where food sizes shrink to cut costs for the distributor, Charlebois says shrinkflation is a silent and subtle disruptor in the Halloween candy aisle this year, which will affect the purchasing power of Halloween enthusiasts, as a result.

"Some individuals might choose to spend less due to the perception of receiving less candy for their money," Charlebois said. "However, Halloween is a cherished tradition, and most people will likely still want to celebrate. They may adjust their budgets accordingly, possibly giving out smaller portions to each child coming to their door."

From Douglas's perspective, Canadians are still overextending themselves, and their wallets, this holiday season.

"Given the restrictions during the pandemic, many are still making up for that time lost with family and friends and are looking to make the holidays extra special," she said. "While some Canadians may be more cautious given the impact higher interest rates and inflation has had on their budgets, many are still overextending themselves to make the holidays fun."

Charlebois still believes inflation will influence Halloween spending, to a degree.

"We anticipate that the average household will still allocate between $25 to $40 this year, which is on par with spending levels from the previous year," he said. "This suggests that while there might be some adjustments in response to inflation, the overall spirit and financial commitment to Halloween festivities remain relatively stable."