The major federal parties are gripped in a three-way tie, according to the latest polling by Nanos Research for CTV and The Globe and Mail.

The latest numbers for the three leading parties:

  • Conservatives: 31.7 per cent
  • NDP: 30.8 per cent
  • Liberals: 30.5 per cent

Voters were asked: "If a federal election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences?"

The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprising 1,200 interviews. Each evening, 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The tracking is updated each day by adding information from a new day and dropping the oldest day.

The margin of error for a survey of 1,089 decided voters is ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The Regions:

  • The Conservatives are leading in the Prairie provinces with 51.0 per cent
  • In Quebec and British Columbia, the NDP register as the most popular party. In British Columbia, 37.1 per cent of respondents picked the New Democrats as their top choice. In Quebec, 45.4 per cent did.
  • The Liberals have the highest support in Atlantic Canada, with 43.8 per cent
  • Also of note: the latest tracking shows the Ontario race is tightening between the Conservatives (35.9 per cent) and the Liberals (35.5 per cent)
  • Regional margins of error: British Columbia: 7.8 per cent, Prairies: 6.7 per cent, Ontario: 5.5 per cent, Quebec: 6.1 per cent, Atlantic: 9.5 per cent

Second Choice:

  • When asked to rank their second choice, 52 per cent of voters who ranked the Liberals first, picked the NDP second.
  • Of those who chose the NDP as their top pick, 49 per cent said the Liberals would be their second choice.
  • Among those who favoured the Conservatives, 34 per cent said they would pick Liberals second, 20 per cent said they would pick the NDP second, and 40 per cent said they have no second choice.

Poll Methodology:

A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Full poll at Nanos Research

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